Related papers: Quantitative easing is an incomplete strategy that…
This paper proposes a method to address the longstanding problem of lack of monotonicity in estimation of conditional and structural quantile functions, also known as the quantile crossing problem. The method consists in sorting or monotone…
We introduce the logistic model of consumption growth, which captures a negative feedback loop preventing an unlimited growth of consumption due to finite biophysical resources of our planet. This simple dynamic model allows for derivation…
Capital growth, at large scales only, arrives with no help from net saving, and consequently with no help from consumption constraint. Net saving, at large scales, is sacrifice of consumption with nothing in return.
Multiple imputation is a highly recommended technique to deal with missing data, but the application to longitudinal datasets can be done in multiple ways. When a new wave of longitudinal data arrives, we can treat the combined data of…
Social Security and other public policies can be viewed as a series of cash in and outflows that depend on parameters such as the age distribution of the population and the retirement age. Given forecasts of these parameters, policies can…
We introduce in this paper a new framework for obtaining a period of exponential inflation that is entirely driven by the quadratic kinetic energy of a scalar field. In contrast to recent attempts to realize scalar field inflation without…
The rules of canonical quantization normally offer good results, but sometimes they fail, e.g., leading to quantum triviality ($=$ free) for certain examples that are classically nontrivial ($\ne$ free). A new procedure, called Enhanced…
The discovery of the string theory landscape has recently brought attention to the eternal nature of inflation. In contrast to the common belief that eternal inflation may be a generic feature of most inflationary models, in this note we…
The usual theory of inflation breaks down in eternal inflation. We derive a dual description of eternal inflation in terms of a deformed Euclidean CFT located at the threshold of eternal inflation. The partition function gives the amplitude…
The viability of a given model for inflation is determined not only by the form of the inflaton potential, but also by the initial inflaton field configuration. In many models, field configurations which are otherwise well-motivated…
We investigate the feasibility of models of inflation with a large Gauss-Bonnet coupling at late times, which have been shown to modify and prevent the end of inflation. Despite the potential of Gauss-Bonnet models in predicting favourable…
We theorize the financial health of a company and the risk of its default. A company is financially healthy as long as its equilibrium in the financial system is maintained, which depends on the cost attributable to the probability that…
New inflationary solutions to the Einstein equation are explicitly constructed in a simple five-dimensional model with an orbifold extra dimension $S^1/Z_2$. We consider inflation caused by cosmological constants for the five-dimensional…
We propose a version of chaotic inflation, in which a fundamental scale M, well below the Planck scale M_P, fixes the initial value of the effective potential. If this scale happens to be the scale of grand unified theories, there are just…
Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: the necessity of bubbles. We establish the Bubble Necessity…
We consider a 4+N dimensional Einstein gravity coupled to a non-linear sigma model. This theory admits a solution in which the N extra dimensions contract exponentially while the ordinary space expand exponentially. Physically, the…
Rational pure bubble models feature multiple (and often a continuum of) equilibria, which makes model predictions and policy analyses non-robust. We show that when the interest rate in the fundamental equilibrium is below the economic…
We investigate an optimal investment problem with a general performance criterion which, in particular, includes discontinuous functions. Prices are modeled as diffusions and the market is incomplete. We find an explicit solution for the…
The Keen model is a mathematical model that describes the dynamic evolution of wages, employment, and debt based on the known Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. It consists of three first order nonlinear ordinary differential…
In this paper we explore the relationship between the existence of eternal inflation and the initial conditions leading to inflation. We demonstrate that past and future completion of inflation is related, in that past-incomplete inflation…