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We develop a new framework of uncertainty variables to model uncertainty. An uncertainty variable is characterized by an uncertainty set, in which its realization is bound to lie, while the conditional uncertainty is characterized by a set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-10 Rajat Talak , Sertac Karaman , Eytan Modiano

The study of the brain's representations of uncertainty is a central topic in neuroscience. Unlike most quantities of which the neural representation is studied, uncertainty is a property of an observer's beliefs about the world, which…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2023-10-12 Edgar Y Walker , Stephan Pohl , Rachel N Denison , David L Barack , Jennifer Lee , Ned Block , Wei Ji Ma , Florent Meyniel

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

When implementing prediction models for high-stakes real-world applications such as medicine, finance, and autonomous systems, quantifying prediction uncertainty is critical for effective risk management. Traditional approaches to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Junting Ren , Armin Schwartzman

An accurate characterization of pose uncertainty is essential for safe autonomous navigation. Early pose uncertainty characterization methods proposed by Smith, Self, and Cheeseman (SCC), used coordinate-based first-order methods to…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-06-20 Joshua G. Mangelson , Maani Ghaffari , Ram Vasudevan , Ryan M. Eustice

Cell polarity and movement are fundamental to many biological functions. Experimental and theoretically studies have indicated that interactions of certain proteins lead to the cell polarization which plays a key role in controlling the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-08-12 Shuang Liu , Li-Tien Cheng , Bo Li

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Kamaljit Chowdhary , Paul Dupuis

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for the use of machine learning in physics, where scientific discoveries depend on validated probabilistic statements. We provide a structured overview of uncertainty quantification in ML for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Manuel Haußmann , Ramon Winterhalder , Maria Ubiali

Medical image segmentation is inherently uncertain. For a given image, there may be multiple plausible segmentation hypotheses, and physicians will often disagree on lesion and organ boundaries. To be suited to real-world application,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-28 João Lourenço Silva , Arlindo L. Oliveira

A cell routinely responds to one of many competing environmental cues. A fundamental question is whether the cell follows the cue prioritized by its internal signaling network or the cue that carries the most external information. We…

Biological Physics · Physics 2025-06-26 Louis Gonzalez , Hogyeong Gwak , Bumsoo Han , Andrew Mugler

Surface reconstruction is a vital tool in a wide range of areas of medical image analysis and clinical research. Despite the fact that many methods have proposed solutions to the reconstruction problem, most, due to their deterministic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-07-31 Katarína Tóthová , Sarah Parisot , Matthew C. H. Lee , Esther Puyol-Antón , Lisa M. Koch , Andrew P. King , Ender Konukoglu , Marc Pollefeys

Uncertainty estimation has been extensively studied in recent literature, which can usually be classified as aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. In current aleatoric uncertainty estimation frameworks, it is often neglected that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Jing Zhang , Yuchao Dai , Mehrtash Harandi , Yiran Zhong , Nick Barnes , Richard Hartley

Quantification of brain morphology has become an important cornerstone in understanding brain structure. Measures of cortical morphology such as thickness and surface area are frequently used to compare groups of subjects or characterise…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-25 Yujiang Wang , Tobias Ludwig , Bethany Little , Joe H Necus , Gavin Winston , Sjoerd B Vos , Jane de Tisi , John S Duncan , Peter N Taylor , Bruno Mota

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), have become essential tools for interpreting complex ensemble tree-based models, especially in high-stakes domains such as healthcare…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Akshat Dubey , Aleksandar Anžel , Bahar İlgen , Georges Hattab

The purpose of this paper is to study metrics suitable for assessing uncertainty of power spectra when these are based on finite second-order statistics. The family of power spectra which is consistent with a given range of values for the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-03-20 Johan Karlsson , Tryphon T. Georgiou

Image segmentation enables to extract quantitative measures from scans that can serve as imaging biomarkers for diseases. However, segmentation quality can vary substantially across scans, and therefore yield unfaithful estimates in the…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-03 J. Senapati , A. Guha Roy , S. Pölsterl , D. Gutmann , S. Gatidis , C. Schlett , A. Peters , F. Bamberg , C. Wachinger

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Marco Zullich

Developmental bias plays a major role in phenotypic evolution. Some researchers have argued that phenotypes, regulated by development, can only evolve along restricted trajectory under certain scenarios, such as the case for mammalian molar…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-15 Yue Zhang

Point-wise localization of individual fluorophores is a critical step in super-resolution microscopy and single particle tracking. Although the methods are limited by the accuracy in localizing individual flourophores, this point-wise…

Biological Physics · Physics 2017-05-08 Martin Lindén , Vladimir Ćurić , Elias Amselem , Johan Elf

Classical results due to Ingham and Paley-Wiener characterize the existence of nonzero functions supported on certain subsets of the real line in terms of the pointwise decay of the Fourier transforms. Viewing these results as uncertainty…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-08 Mithun Bhowmik , Suparna Sen