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Data analyses typically rely upon assumptions about missingness mechanisms that lead to observed versus missing data. When the data are missing not at random, direct assumptions about the missingness mechanism, and indirect assumptions…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-22 Alexander M Franks , Edoardo M Airoldi , Donald B Rubin

Cognitive diagnosis models have been widely used in different areas, especially intelligent education, to measure users' proficiency levels on knowledge concepts, based on which users can get personalized instructions. As the measurement is…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Fei Wang , Qi Liu , Enhong Chen , Chuanren Liu , Zhenya Huang , Jinze Wu , Shijin Wang

Root cause analysis of anomalies aims to identify how and why a sample deviates from the normal process. Existing methods primarily focus on telling which features are responsible, ignoring that anomalies can arise through two fundamentally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Hendrik Suhr , David Kaltenpoth , Jilles Vreeken

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal inference can help inferring properties of the 'unobserved joint distributions'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Dominik Janzing

Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Gilles Barthe , Borja Balle , Isabel Valera

We revisit the outlier hypothesis testing framework of Li \emph{et al.} (TIT 2014) and derive fundamental limits for the optimal test. In outlier hypothesis testing, one is given multiple observed sequences, where most sequences are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-17 Lin Zhou , Yun Wei , Alfred Hero

Randomized experiments in which the treatment of a unit can affect the outcomes of other units are becoming increasingly common in healthcare, economics, and in the social and information sciences. From a causal inference perspective, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-14 Daniel L. Sussman , Edoardo M. Airoldi

Whilst an abundance of techniques have recently been proposed to generate counterfactual explanations for the predictions of opaque black-box systems, markedly less attention has been paid to exploring the uncertainty of these generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Eoin Delaney , Derek Greene , Mark T. Keane

The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-08-17 André Chalom , Paulo Inácio de Knegt López de Prado

Classification models for the automatic detection of abnormalities on histological samples do exists, with an active debate on the cost associated with false negative diagnosis (underdiagnosis) and false positive diagnosis (overdiagnosis).…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-05-18 Giancarlo Crocetti , Michael Coakley , Phil Dressner , Wanda Kellum , Tamba Lamin

A common assumption in causal inference from observational data is that there is no hidden confounding. Yet it is, in general, impossible to verify this assumption from a single dataset. Under the assumption of independent causal mechanisms…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-07 Rickard K. A. Karlsson , Jesse H. Krijthe

Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Gregor Steiner , Jeremie Houssineau , Mark F. J. Steel

Dynamic factor models have a wide range of applications in econometrics and applied economics. The basic motivation resides in their capability of reducing a large set of time series to only few indicators (factors). If the number of time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Roberto Baragona , Francesco Battaglia

Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems. Doing so can often improve performance on subsequent decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Carlos Patiño , Yewon Byun , Steven Wu , Eric Horvitz , Bryan Wilder

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Dennis Ulmer , Lotta Meijerink , Giovanni Cinà

Different dependence scenarios can arise in multivariate extremes, entailing careful selection of an appropriate class of models. In bivariate extremes, the variables are either asymptotically dependent or are asymptotically independent.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-30 Jennifer Wadsworth , Jonathan Tawn , Anthony Davison , Daniel Elton

To analyze the uncertain data frequently encountered in practice, this paper proposes novel fixed-effects models that incorporate an uncertain measure to investigate variables of interest and nuisance variables in factor designs. First, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Fan Zhang , Zhiming Li

Unmeasured confounding is a major challenge for identifying causal relationships from non-experimental data. Here, we propose a method that can accommodate unmeasured discrete confounding. Extending recent identifiability results in deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Patrick Burauel , Frederick Eberhardt , Michel Besserve

Missing data are often dealt with multiple imputation. A crucial part of the multiple imputation process is selecting sensible models to generate plausible values for incomplete data. A method based on posterior predictive checking is…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-14 Mingyang Cai , Stef van Buuren , Gerko Vink

An important task in data analysis is the discovery of causal relationships between observed variables. For continuous-valued data, linear acyclic causal models are commonly used to model the data-generating process, and the inference of…