Related papers: Exit times for multivariate autoregressive process…
Motivated by the existing difficulties in establishing mathematical models and in observing the system state time series for some complex systems, especially for those driven by non-Gaussian Levy motion, we devise a method for extracting…
We study a generalization of the voter model on complex networks, focusing on the scaling of mean exit time. Previous work has defined the voter model in terms of an initially chosen node and a randomly chosen neighbor, which makes it…
We introduce stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a time-dependent nonnegative function of a reflecting diffusion. The idea to use reflecting diffusions as building blocks of the volatility came into being…
Variational formulas for the Laplace transform of the exit time from an open set of a Hunt process generated by a regular lower bounded semi-Dirichlet form are established. While for symmetric Markov processes, variational formulas are…
The orientational memory of particles can serve as an effective measure of diffusivity, spreading, and search efficiency in complex stochastic processes. We develop a theoretical framework to describe the decay of directional correlations…
In this paper we consider switched nonlinear systems under average dwell time switching signals, with an otherwise arbitrary compact index set and with additional constraints in the switchings. We present invariance principles for these…
We present a detailed study on the mean first-passage time of volatility processes. We analyze the theoretical expressions based on the most common stochastic volatility models along with empirical results extracted from daily data of major…
We provide a complete solution of the problems of the probability distribution and the escape rate in Poisson-noise driven systems. It includes both the exponents and the prefactors. The analysis refers to an overdamped particle in a…
We experimentally investigate the escape from a metastable state over a fluctuating barrier of a physical system. The system is switching between two states under electronic control of a dichotomous noise. We measure the escape time and its…
We present a general approach for studying autoregressive categorical time series models with dependence of infinite order and defined conditional on an exogenous covariate process. To this end, we adapt a coupling approach, developed in…
In this paper, we study non-asymptotic deviation bounds of the least squares estimator in Gaussian AR($n$) processes. By relying on martingale concentration inequalities and a tail-bound for $\chi^2$ distributed variables, we provide a…
We consider an additive functional driven by a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain with a finite state space. Our study focuses on the joint distribution of the two-sided exit time and the state of the driving Markov chain at the time of exit,…
The term noncentral moderate deviations is used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between the convergence in probability to a constant (governed by a reference large deviation…
We introduce a Langevin equation characterized by a time dependent drift. By assuming a temporal power-law dependence of the drift we show that a great variety of behavior is observed in the dynamics of the variance of the process. In…
We study a large class of reversible Markov chains with discrete state space and transition matrix $P_N$. We define the notion of a set of {\it metastable points} as a subset of the state space $\G_N$ such that (i) this set is reached from…
We present a numerical method to compute the survival function and the moments of the exit time for a piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP). Our approach is based on the quantization of an underlying discrete-time Markov chain…
We study the problem of exponential mixing and large deviations for discrete-time Markov processes associated with a class of random dynamical systems. Under some dissipativity and regularisation hypotheses for the underlying deterministic…
Calculating the mean exit time (MET) for models of diffusion is a classical problem in statistical physics, with various applications in biophysics, economics and heat and mass transfer. While many exact results for MET are known for…
We study a linear recursion with random Markov-dependent coefficients. In a "regular variation in, regular variation out" setup we show that its stationary solution has a multivariate regularly varying distribution. This extends results…
A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step…