Related papers: Exit times for multivariate autoregressive process…
We consider a stable but nearly unstable autoregressive process of any order. The bridge between stability and instability is expressed by a time-varying companion matrix $A_{n}$ with spectral radius $\rho(A_{n}) < 1$ satisfying…
The paper presents a systematic theory for asymptotic inference of autocovariances of stationary processes. We consider nonparametric tests for serial correlations based on the maximum (or ${\cal L}^\infty$) and the quadratic (or ${\cal…
Complex systems are sometimes subject to non Gaussian alpha stable Levy fluctuations. A new method is devised to estimate this uncertain parameter and other system parameters, using observations on either mean exit time or escape…
A dynamical system driven by non-Gaussian L\'evy noises of small intensity is considered. The first exit time of solution orbits from a bounded neighborhood of an attracting equilibrium state is estimated. For a class of non-Gaussian L\'evy…
We obtain large deviation results for a two time-scale model of jump-diffusion processes. The processes on the two time scales are fully inter-dependent, the slow process has small perturbative noise and the fast process is ergodic. Our…
This paper introduce the notion of output contraction that expands the contraction notion to the time-varying nonlinear systems with output. It pertains to the systems' property that any pair of outputs from the system converge to each…
We consider a centered random walk with finite variance and investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the area under this walk remains positive up to a large time $n$. Assuming that the moment of order $2+\delta$ is…
A dynamical system perturbed by white noise in a neighborhood of an unstable fixed point is considered. We obtain the exit asymptotics in the limit of vanishing noise intensity. This is a refinement of a result by Kifer (1981).
We find the asymptotic distribution of the sample autocovariances of long-memory processes in cases of finite and infinite fourth moment. Depending on the interplay of assumptions on moments and the intensity of dependence, there are three…
We introduce a single generative mechanism with which it is able to describe diverse non-stationary diffusions. A non-stationary Markovian replication process for steps is considered, for which we analytically derive time-evolution of the…
Conditions are obtained for a Gaussian vector autoregressive time series of order $k$, VAR($k$), to have univariate margins that are autoregressive of order $k$ or lower-dimensional margins that are also VAR($k$). This can lead to…
We consider a class of stochastic dynamical systems, called piecewise deterministic Markov processes, with states $(x, \s)\in \O\times \G$, $\O$ being a region in $\bbR^d$ or the $d$--dimensional torus, $\G$ being a finite set. The…
We consider maximum likelihood estimation for both causal and noncausal autoregressive time series processes with non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable noise. A nondegenerate limiting distribution is given for maximum likelihood estimators of the…
In this paper we consider a multidimensional random walk killed on leaving a right circular cone with a distribution of increments belonging to the normal domain of attraction of an $\alpha$-stable and rotationally-invariant law with…
We consider a $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued branching random walk with a stationary and ergodic environment $\xi=(\xi_n)$ indexed by time $n\in\mathbb{N}$. Let $Z_n$ be the counting measure of particles of generation $n$. With the help of the…
The higher dimensional autoregressive models would describe some of the econometric processes relatively generically if they incorporate the heterogeneity in dependence on times. This paper analyzes the stationarity of an autoregressive…
We consider a finite dimensional deterministic dynamical system with a global attractor A with a unique ergodic measure P concentrated on it, which is uniformly parametrized by the mean of the trajectories in a bounded set D containing A.…
We study in this paper the large-time asymptotics of the empirical vector associated with a family of finite-state mean-field systems with multi-classes. The empirical vector is composed of local empirical measures characterizing the…
We discuss the response of continuous time random walks to an oscillating external field within the generalized master equation approach. We concentrate on the time dependence of the two first moments of the walker's displacements. We show…
We establish new conditions for obtaining uniform bounds on the moments of discrete-time stochastic processes. Our results require a weak negative drift criterion along with a state-dependent restriction on the sizes of the one-step jumps…