Related papers: Exit times for multivariate autoregressive process…
Large deviation results are given for a class of perturbed nonhomogeneous Markov chains on finite state space which formally includes some stochastic optimization algorithms. Specifically, let {P_n} be a sequence of transition matrices on a…
In this article we study multivariate continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (MCARMA) processes with values in convex cones. More specifically, we introduce matrix-valued MCARMA processes with L\'evy noise and present necessary and…
We investigate the escape behavior of systems governed by the one-dimensional nonlinear diffusion equation $\partial_t \rho = \partial_x[\partial_x U\rho] + D\partial^2_x \rho^\nu$, where the potential of the drift, $U(x)$, presents a…
A control strategy is employed that modifies the stochastic escape times from one basin of attraction to another in a model of a double-gyre flow. The system studied captures the behavior of a large class of fluid flows that circulate and…
In this paper, we present large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events of stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise. We aim to consider next-to-leading-order approximation for more…
This article concerns the large deviations regime and the consequent solution of the Kramers problem for a two-time scale stochastic system driven by a common jump noise signal perturbed in small intensity $\varepsilon>0$ and with…
In this manuscript we show that a noise-activated escape phenomenon occurs in closed Hamiltonian systems. Due to the energy fluctuations generated by the noise, the isopotential curves open up and the particles can eventually escape in…
Stochastic homogenization is achieved for a class of elliptic and parabolic equations describing the lifetime, in large domains, of stationary diffusion processes in random environment which are small, statistically isotropic perturbations…
The first purpose of this article is to obtain a.s. asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in the autoregressive process driven by a stationary Gaussian noise. The second purpose is to show the local asymptotic normality…
We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…
A threshold autoregressive (TAR) model is a powerful tool for analyzing nonlinear multivariate time series, which includes special cases like self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models and vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In…
When modelling time series, it is common to decompose observed variation into a "signal" process, the process of interest, and "noise", representing nuisance factors that obfuscate the signal. To separate signal from noise, assumptions must…
We study a discrete time multitype branching random walk on a finite space with finite set of types. Particles follow a Markov chain on the spatial space whereas offspring distributions are given by a random field that is fixed throughout…
In this paper we propose a framework that enables the study of large deviations for point processes based on stationary sequences with regularly varying tails. This framework allows us to keep track not of the magnitude of the extreme…
In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (non-fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also…
In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…
The purpose of this paper is to consider the exit-time problem for a finite-range Markov jump process, i.e, the distance the particle can jump is bounded independent of its location. Such jump diffusions are expedient models for anomalous…
For a zero-mean, unit-variance second-order stationary univariate Gaussian process we derive the probability that a record at the time $n$, say $X_n$, takes place and derive its distribution function. We study the joint distribution of the…
We study the persistence probability for some discrete-time, time-reversible processes. In particular, we deduce the persistence exponent in a number of examples: first, we deal with random walks in random sceneries (RWRS) in any dimension…
In this paper, we establish sample path large and moderate deviation principles for log-price processes in Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and study the asymptotic behavior of exit probabilities, call pricing functions, and the…