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An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a complex evolving system has important implications in an array of areas. Here we propose a generative probabilistic framework using a reinforced Poisson process to…
We study the rare event behavior of the workload process in a transitory queue, where the arrival epochs (or points) of a finite number of jobs are assumed to be the ordered statistics of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)…
We study a single-server priority queue with a finite number of classes, in which the arrivals follow a fractional Poisson process of index $\alpha \in (0,1]$ and the service completions are triggered by an independent fractional Poisson…
Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide an elegant mathematical framework for modeling complex decision and planning problems in stochastic domains in which states of the system are observable only indirectly, via a…
We provide elementary proofs of several results concerning the possible outcomes arising from a fixed profile within the class of positional voting systems. Our arguments enable a simple and explicit construction of paradoxical profiles,…
Changing time of simple continuous-time Markov counting processes by independent unit-rate Poisson processes results in Markov counting processes for which we provide closed-form transition rates via composition of trajectories and with…
In all but special circumstances, measurements of time-dependent processes reflect internal structures and correlations only indirectly. Building predictive models of such hidden information sources requires discovering, in some way, the…
An important problem in computational social choice theory is the complexity of undesirable behavior among agents, such as control, manipulation, and bribery in election systems. These kinds of voting strategies are often tempting at the…
We describe a mechanism for subsampling sequences and show how to compute its expected output so that it can be trained with standard backpropagation. We test this approach on a simple toy problem and discuss its shortcomings.
A succesful method to describe the asymptotic behavior of a discrete time stochastic process governed by some recursive formula is to relate it to the limit sets of a well chosen mean differential equation. Under an attainability condition,…
Probabilistic programming is related to a compositional approach to stochastic modeling by switching from discrete to continuous time dynamics. In continuous time, an operator-algebra semantics is available in which processes proceeding in…
We study a model of a polling system, that is, a collection of $d$ queues with a single server that switches from queue to queue. The service time distribution and arrival rates change randomly every time a queue is emptied. This model is…
A FORTRAN program to simulate the operation of infinite servers queues is presented in this work. Poisson arrivals processes are considered but not only. For many parameters of interest in queuing systems study or application, either there…
An unbinned statistical test on cluster-like deviations from Poisson processes for point process data is introduced, presented in the context of time variability analysis of astrophysical sources in count rate experiments. The measure of…
Compartment models with delay terms are widely used across a range of disciplines. The motivation to include delay terms varies across different contexts. In epidemiological and pharmacokinetic models, the delays are often used to represent…
We develop a general framework for the construction of probabilities for the time of arrival in quantum systems. The time of arrival is identified with the time instant when a transition in the detector's degrees of freedom takes place.…
Suppose we observe a Poisson process in real time for which the intensity may take on two possible values $\lambda_0$ and $\lambda_1$. Suppose further that the priori probability of the true intensity is not given. We solve a minimax…
We consider a single-server cyclic polling system with three queues where the server follows an adaptive rule: if it finds one of queues empty in a given cycle, it decides not to visit that queue in the next cycle. In the case of limited…
The electoral college of voting system for the US presidential election is analogous to a coarse graining procedure commonly used to study phase transitions in physical systems. In a recent paper, opinion dynamics models manifesting a phase…
We introduce the prioritising exclusion process, a stochastic scheduling mechanism for a priority queueing system in which high priority customers gain advantage by overtaking low priority customers. The model is analogous to a totally…