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Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…
Quasi steady state assumptions are often used to simplify complex systems of ordinary differential equations in modelling of biochemical processes. The simplified system is designed to have the same qualitative properties as the original…
Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers…
In this paper we study the problem of model reduction by moment matching for stochastic systems. We characterize the mathematical object which generalizes the notion of moment to stochastic differential equations and we find a class of…
For probabilistic programs, it is usually not possible to automatically derive exact information about their properties, such as the distribution of states at a given program point. Instead, one can attempt to derive approximations, such as…
This article revisits the fundamental problem of parameter selection for Gaussian process interpolation. By choosing the mean and the covariance functions of a Gaussian process within parametric families, the user obtains a family of…
We propose here a method to estimate a delay from a time series taking advantage of analysis of random walks with delay. This method is applicable to a time series coming out of a system which is or can be approximated as a linear feedback…
In this paper we consider a single-server cyclic polling system consisting of two queues. Between visits to successive queues, the server is delayed by a random switch-over time. Two types of customers arrive at the first queue: high and…
When various observers obtain information in an independent fashion about a classical system, there is a simple rule which allows them to pool their knowledge, and this requires only the states-of-knowledge of the respective observers. Here…
We consider a polling system where a group of an infinite number of servers visits sequentially a set of queues. When visited, each queue is attended for a random time. Arrivals at each queue follow a Poisson process, and service time of…
Motivated by interest in providing more efficient services in customer service systems, we use statistical learning methods and delay history information to predict the conditional distribution of the customers' waiting times in queueing…
This paper provides a mathematical framework for estimation of the service time distribution and the expected service time of an infinite-server queueing system with a nonhomogeneous Poisson arrival process, in the case of partial…
We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient…
In social systems, meaning can be communicated in addition to underlying processes of the information exchange. Meaning processing incurs on information processing with hindsight, while information processing recursively follows the time…
In this paper, we analyze a polling system on a circle. Random batches of customers arrive at a circle, where each customer, independently, obtains a uniform location. A single server cyclically travels over the circle to serve all…
We consider an exhaustive polling system with three nodes in its transient regime under a switching rule of generalized greedy type. We show that, for the system with Poisson arrivals and service times with finite second moment, the…
We introduce a fractional generalization of the Erlang Queues $M/E_k/1$. Such process is obtained through a time-change via inverse stable subordinator of the classical queue process. We first exploit the (fractional) Kolmogorov forward…
We consider a fractional counting process with jumps of amplitude $1,2,\ldots,k$, with $k\in \mathbb{N}$, whose probabilities satisfy a suitable system of fractional difference-differential equations. We obtain the moment generating…
We study higher statistical moments of Distortion for randomized social choice in a metric implicit utilitarian model. The Distortion of a social choice mechanism is the expected approximation factor with respect to the optimal utilitarian…
Approximate inference in dynamic systems is the problem of estimating the state of the system given a sequence of actions and partial observations. High precision estimation is fundamental in many applications like diagnosis, natural…