Related papers: Early Warning Signals and the Prosecutor's Fallacy
State-of-the-art motor vehicles are able to break for pedestrians in an emergency. We investigate what it would take to issue an early warning to the driver so he/she has time to react. We have identified that predicting the intention of a…
The Availability bias, manifested in the over-representation of extreme eventualities in decision-making, is a well-known cognitive bias, and is generally taken as evidence of human irrationality. In this work, we present the first…
Deep Learning is becoming increasingly relevant in Embedded and Internet-of-things applications. However, deploying models on embedded devices poses a challenge due to their resource limitations. This can impact the model's inference…
Recursive learning -- where models are trained on data generated by previous versions of themselves -- is increasingly common in large language models, autonomous agents, and self-supervised systems. However, standard performance metrics…
Predicting issue lifetime can help software developers, managers, and stakeholders effectively prioritize work, allocate development resources, and better understand project timelines. Progress had been made on this prediction problem, but…
Signal processing makes extensive use of point estimators and accompanying error bounds. These work well up until the likelihood function has two or more high peaks. When it is important for an estimator to remain reliable, it becomes…
Critical transitions and tipping phenomena between two meta-stable states in stochastic dynamical systems are a significant scientific issue. In this work, we expand the methodology of identifying the most probable transition pathway…
We identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces…
Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder characterized by abrupt seizures. Although seizures may appear random, they are often preceded by early warning signs in neural signals, notably, critical slowing down, a phenomenon in which the…
Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very…
Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods…
Big data and algorithmic risk prediction tools promise to improve criminal justice systems by reducing human biases and inconsistencies in decision making. Yet different, equally-justifiable choices when developing, testing, and deploying…
Early warning systems (EWSs) are critical for forecasting and preventing economic and financial crises. EWSs are designed to provide early warning signs of financial troubles, allowing policymakers and market participants to intervene…
We consider a model for substrate-depletion oscillations in genetic systems, based on a stochastic differential equation with a slowly evolving external signal. We show the existence of critical transitions in the system. We apply two…
In real-world systems, phase transitions often materialize abruptly, making it difficult to design appropriate controls that help uncover underlying processes. Some agent-based computational models display transformations similar to phase…
We propose predictive information, that is information between a long past of duration T and the entire infinitely long future of a time series, as a universal order parameter to study phase transitions in physical systems. It can be used,…
Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…
It is tested whether past abrupt climate changes support the validity of statistical early-warning signals (EWS) as predictor of future climate tipping points. EWS are expected increases in amplitude and correlation of fluctuations driven…
Financial crime is a rampant but hidden threat. In spite of this, predictive policing systems disproportionately target "street crime" rather than white collar crime. This paper presents the White Collar Crime Early Warning System (WCCEWS),…
The predictability of a coupled system composed by a coupled reduced-order extratropical ocean-atmosphere model forced by a low-order 3-variable tropical recharge-discharge model, is explored with emphasis on the long term forecasting…