Related papers: Early Warning Signals and the Prosecutor's Fallacy
Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of…
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…
In this topical review, we present a brief overview of the different methods and measures to detect the occurrence of critical transitions in complex systems. We start by introducing the mechanisms that trigger critical transitions, and how…
A broad range of natural and social systems from human microbiome to financial markets can go through critical transitions, where the system suddenly collapses to another stable configuration. Critical transitions can be unexpected, with…
Critical transitions, or large changes in the state of a system after a small change in the system's external conditions or parameters, commonly occur in a wide variety of disciplines, from the biological and social sciences to physics.…
Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
The percolation phase transition in complex network systems attracts much attention and has numerous applications in various research fields. Finite size effects smooth the transition and make it difficult to predict the critical point of…
Early-warning indicators (increase of autocorrelation and variance) are commonly applied to time series data to try and detect tipping points of real-world systems. The theory behind these indicators originates from approximating the…
In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…
Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of…
Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining…
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and…
Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…
The use of critical slowing down as an early warning indicator for regime switching in observations from stochastic environments and noisy dynamical models has been widely studied and implemented in recent years. Some systems, however, have…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
Stemming from physics and later applied to other fields such as ecology, the theory of critical transitions suggests that some regime shifts are preceded by statistical early warning signals. Reddit's r/place experiment, a large-scale…
A large variety of complex systems in ecology, climate science, biomedicine and engineering have been observed to exhibit tipping points, where the internal dynamical state of the system abruptly changes. For example, such critical…
Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…