Related papers: Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I…
Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any…
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the…
We study the statistics of simulated earthquakes in a quasistatic model of two parallel heterogeneous faults within a slowly driven elastic tectonic plate. The probability that one fault remains dormant while the other is active for a time…
In this paper, we proposed the Survival Language, a pattern language to support survival when a catastrophic earthquake occurs. This proposal comes from the problem that the tragedies of earthquakes are repeated, because knowledge and…
Earthquakes are complex physical processes driven by the stick-slip motion of a sliding fault. After the main quake, a series of aftershocks typically follows. These are loosely defined as events that follow a given event and occur within…
The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events.…
We introduce a modification of the OFC earthquake model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 68, 1244 (1992)] in order to improve resemblance with the Burridge and Knopoff mechanical model and with possible laboratory experiments. A constant force continually…
Bayesian neural networks (BNN) are the probabilistic model that combines the strengths of both neural network (NN) and stochastic processes. As a result, BNN can combat overfitting and perform well in applications where data is limited.…
The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…
Self-similarity indicates that large and small earthquakes share the same physics, where all variables scale with rupture length $L$. Here I show that rupture tip acceleration during the start of dynamic rupture (break-out phase) is also…
Recent observation studies have revealed that earthquakes are classified into several different categories. Each category might be characterized by the unique statistical feature in the time series, but the present understanding is still…
A common use of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid's elastic rebound theory. Here it is…
Trapped particles bursts have long been observed to be frequently occurred several hours before earthquakes, especially for strong earthquakes, from several space experiments during past decades. However, the validity of earthquake origin…
The fundamentals of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks are presented. The theory contains an original concept of the proper time of the earthquake source, the course of which, generally speaking, differs from the course of world…
Terra Seismic can predict most major earthquakes (M6.2 or greater) at least 2 - 5 months before they will strike. Global earthquake prediction is based on determinations of the stressed areas that will start to behave abnormally before…
The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…
The statistics of recurrence times in broad areas have been reported to obey universal scaling laws, both for single homogeneous regions (Corral, 2003) and when averaged over multiple regions (Bak et al.,2002). These unified scaling laws…
Let $\cT$ be Teichm\"uller space of a closed surface of genus at least 2. For any point $c\in \cT$, we describe an action of the circle on $\cT\times \cT$, which limits to the earthquake flow when one of the parameters goes to a measured…
The new field of complex systems supports the view that a number of systems arising from disciplines as diverse as physics, biology, engineering, and economics may have certain quantitative features that are intriguingly similar. The earth…
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…