Related papers: Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I…
Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…
The seismic processes are well known to be self-similar in both spatial and temporal behavior. At the same time, the Burridge-Knopoff (BK) model of earthquake fault dynamics, one of the basic models of theoretical seismicity, does not…
Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm…
We show that Bak et al.'s unified scaling law cannot be trivially explained by a single Omori aftershock sequence. On the contrary, the spatial heterogeneity of seismicity plays a fundamental role in the unified scaling law, which implies…
It was conjectured for a long time that the tectonic plates are in a self-organized state of criticality and that the Gutenberg-Richter law is a manifestation of that. It was recently shown that for a system near criticality, the inequality…
Earthquakes at seismogenic plate boundaries are a response to the differential motions of tectonic blocks embedded within a geometrically complex network of branching and coalescing faults. Elastic strain is accumulated at a slow strain…
In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise --- intermittent avalanche-like relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes --- the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not…
We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic…
The statistical properties of time intervals between significant earthquakes are found to be described by the Zipf-Mandelbrot-Tsallis-type distribution.
Monitoring stress recovery and accumulation associated with megaquakes helps to assess their recurrence. Previous studies proposed a high likelihood of imminent recurrence for the 2011 Tohoku and the 17th-century Hokkaido megaquakes…
We have developed a model that describes the major characteristics of a rupture, ranging from regular earthquakes (EQs) to slow slip events (SSEs), including episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Previous model predictions, while accurate, are…
The conditional intensity function of a point process is a useful tool for generating probability forecasts of earthquakes. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is defined by a conditional intensity function, and the…
The existence of magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported. Such a correlation is linked to the issue of seismic predictability and remains under intense debate whether it is physical or is caused by incomplete data…
The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified.…
We propose a new test of the critical earthquake model based on the hypothesis that precursory earthquakes are ``actors'' that create fluctuations in the stress field which exhibit an increasing correlation length as the critical large…
The statistical property of the calm times, i.e., time intervals between successive earthquakes with arbitrary values of magnitude, is studied by analyzing the seismic time series data in California and Japan. It is found that the calm…
In the present paper we have conducted studies on seismological properties using worldwide data of deep earthquakes (depth larger than 70 km), considering events with magnitude $m \geq 4.5$. We have addressed the problem under the…
I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…