Related papers: Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I…
Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…
A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence…
Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities". The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
A review of the statistical properties of earthquakes is provided, centered mainly in the work of the author (apologies for that). We explain the scaling law for the recurrence-time distributions, its universal character for stationary…
Earthquakes are a complex spatiotemporal phenomenon, the underlying mechanism for which is still not fully understood despite decades of research and analysis. We propose and develop a network approach to earthquake events. In this network,…
The recently introduced Minimalist Model [Vazquez- Prada et al., 2002] of characteristic earthquakes provides a simple representation of the seismicity originated in a sin- gle fault. Here, we first characterize the properties of this model…
Statistical properties of earthquakes are studied both by the analysis of real earthquake catalog of Japan and by numerical computer simulations of the spring-block model in both one and two dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the…
The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent…
Universal shape profiles in a variety of systems contain crucial information on the underlying dynamics. We develop such shape profiles for earthquakes as a stronger test of theory against observations. The earthquake analysis shows good…