Related papers: Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I…

An attempt to construct a phenomenological theory of earthquakes is being undertaken by a small research team, which includes the author. We have only taken the first steps towards goal, but the results already obtained convincingly…

The theory about the brittle failures of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us since 2010 is introduced in the present study. It is stated by the theory that the progressive failures of locked patch result in…

Predicting earthquakes is of the utmost importance, especially to those countries of high risk, and although much effort has been made, it has yet to be realised. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of statistical approaches in seismic studies…

Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…

Seismicity and faulting within the Earth crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase…

A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…

Testing the global earthquake catalogue for indications of non-Poissonian attributes has been an area of intense research, especially since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The usual approach is to test statistically for the hypothesis that the…

The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the…

The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most widely-used approaches to seismic forecasting. However most studies of ETAS use point estimates for the model parameters, which ignores the inherent uncertainty that…

We present an overview of our ongoing studies of the rich dynamical behavior of the uniform, deterministic Burridge--Knopoff model of an earthquake fault. We discuss the behavior of the model in the context of current questions in…

The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…

The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…

We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…

Characteristic versus critical features of earthquakes are studied on the basis of the Olami-Feder-Christensen model. It is found that the local recurrence-time distribution exhibits a sharp $\delta$-function-like peak corresponding to…

During the last twenty years, a number of publications of theoretical-numerical nature have appeared which come to the apparently-reassuring conclusion that seismic motion on the ground in cities is smaller than what this motion would be in…

Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characterize the range of plausible hazard outcomes. Implicit in this…

We present a new technique in order to quantify the dynamics of spatially extended systems. Using a test on the existence of unstable periodic orbits, we identify intermediate spatial scales, wherein the dynamics is characterized by maximum…

Earthquakes are rupture-like processes that propagate along tectonic faults and cause seismic waves. The propagation speed and final area of the rupture, which determine an earthquake's potential impact, are directly related to the nature…

This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…

We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law…