Related papers: Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I…
Short and long range interactions between earthquakes are attracting increasing interest. Scale invariant properties of seismicity in time, space and energy argue for the presence of complex triggering mechanisms where, like a cascade…
Contrary to common belief, as the time since the last earthquake in a certain region increases, the risk of occurrence of another earthquake diminishes. As a consequence, the expected waiting time to the next event increases with the…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…
The collapse of man-made and natural structures is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for centuries. We propose a new approach to understanding catastrophic instabilities, based on the idea that they do not occur at the critical…
We review the present status of our research and understanding regarding the dynamics and the statistical properties of earthquakes, mainly from a statistical physical viewpoint. Emphasis is put both on the physics of friction and fracture,…
Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…
A globally driven self-organized critical model of earthquakes with conservative dynamics has been studied. An open but moving boundary condition has been used so that the origin (epicenter) of every avalanche (earthquake) is at the center…
In order to clarify how the statistical properties of earthquakes depend on the constitutive law characterizing the stick-slip dynamics, we make an extensive numerical simulation of the one-dimensional spring-block model with the rate- and…
We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervals of about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), the applicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. A viable…
Without a model, it is impossible for a geophysicist to study the possibility of forecasting earth quakes. We will define a quantity, the event-degree, in the paper. This quantity plays an important role in the model of quakes forecasting.…
A novel geomechanics concept is presented for studying the behavior of geomaterials and structures by capturing the underlying dynamics as realistically as possible for earthquake excitation applied in time domain. Enormous amount of…
The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural,…
The field of study of complex systems holds that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural,…
Around 90% of the earthquakes in the world occur at the circum-Pacific belt referred to as the Pacific Ring of Fire exposing the countries in this region to high risk of earthquake hazards. We model fluctuations of the different seismic…
The aftershocks of the Tohoku earthquake are analyzed in light of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks. The theory is based on the concept of an earthquake source as a dynamic system, the state of which is described by a deactivation…
Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…
Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible…