Related papers: Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes
We study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that a stochastic process $(Z_t)_{t \geq 0}$ does not exceed a constant barrier up to time $T$ (the so called survival probability) when Z is the composition of two independent processes…
This article deals with the asymptotic behaviour as $t\to +\infty$ of the survival function $P[T > t],$ where $T$ is the first passage time above a non negative level of a random process starting from zero. In many cases of physical…
We study the persistence probability for some discrete-time, time-reversible processes. In particular, we deduce the persistence exponent in a number of examples: first, we deal with random walks in random sceneries (RWRS) in any dimension…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that a weighted sum of centered i.i.d. random variables X_k does not exceed a constant barrier. For regular random walks, the results follow easily from classical fluctuation theory,…
In [AJM26], we gave large-time asymptotic bounds on the annealed survival probability of a moving polymer taking values in ${\mathbb R}^d, d \geq 1$. This polymer is a solution of a stochastic heat equation driven by additive spacetime…
Let $Z_{n}$ be the number of individuals in a subcritical BPRE evolving in the environment generated by iid probability distributions. Let $X$ be the logarithm of the expected offspring size per individual given the environment. Assuming…
The stability of an Auto-Regressive (AR) time sequence of finite order $L$, is determined by the maximal modulus $r^\star$ among all zeros of its generating polynomial. If $r^\star<1$ then the effect of input and initial conditions decays…
We consider one dimensional random walks in random environment where every time the process stays at a location, it dies with a fixed probability. Under some mild assumptions it is easy to show that the survival probability goes to zero as…
Lower bounds for persistence probabilities of stationary Gaussian processes in discrete time are obtained under various conditions on the spectral measure of the process. Examples are given to show that the persistence probability can decay…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of the survival probability of a multi-type branching processes in random environment. The class of processes we consider corresponds, in the one-dimensional situation, to the intermediately subcritical…
The survival probability measures the probability that a system taken out of equilibrium has not yet moved out from its initial state. Inspired by the generalized entropies used to analyze nonergodic states, we introduce a generalized…
An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…
We characterize recurrence and transience of nonnegative multivariate autoregressive processes of order one with random contractive coefficient matrix, of subcritical multitype Galton-Watson branching processes in random environment with…
Let $S_n^{(2)}$ denote the iterated partial sums. That is, $S_n^{(2)}=S_1+S_2+ ... +S_n$, where $S_i=X_1+X_2+ ... s+X_i$. Assuming $X_1, X_2,....,X_n$ are integrable, zero-mean, i.i.d. random variables, we show that the persistence…
Let $X_1,X_2,...$ be a sequence of random variables satisfying the distributional recursion $X_1=0$ and $X_n= X_{n-I_n}+1$ for $n=2,3,...$, where $I_n$ is a random variable with values in $\{1,...,n-1\}$ which is independent of…
The focus of a survival study is partly on the distribution of survival times, and partly on the health or quality of life of patients while they live. Health varies over time, and survival is the most basic aspect of health, so the two…
A random coefficient autoregressive process is deeply investigated in which the coefficients are correlated. First we look at the existence of a strictly stationary causal solution, we give the second-order stationarity conditions and the…
We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability of non extinction of a weakly subcritical multitype branching process in iid random environments. Under suitable assumptions, the survival probability is of order of $\rho^n n ^{-3/2}$ for…
We analyze the dynamics of random walks with long-term memory (binary chains with long-range correlations) in the presence of an absorbing boundary. An analytically solvable model is presented, in which a dynamical phase-transition occurs…
When the initial state of a quantum mechanical system is an excited state, then it is expected that the occupation, or survival, probability of that state will decrease. This is studied numerically within the Bixon-Jortner model, which was…