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For time series data observed at non-random and possibly non-equidistant time points, we estimate the trend function nonparametrically. Under the assumption of a bounded total variation of the function and low-order moment conditions on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Michael H. Neumann , Anne Leucht

In this paper, we obtain optimal uniform lower tail estimates for the probability distribution of the properly scaled length of the longest up/right path of the last passage site percolation model considered by Johansson in [12]. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jinho Baik , Percy Deift , Ken McLaughlin , Peter Miller , Xin Zhou

Given $n$ samples from a population of individuals belonging to different species, what is the number $U$ of hitherto unseen species that would be observed if $\lambda n$ new samples were collected? This is an important problem in many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-17 Stefano Favaro , Zacharie Naulet

We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-27 Jongwook Kim , Teppei Okumura

Let $X_{1},..,X_{n}$ denote an i.i.d. sample with light tail distribution and $S_{1}^{n}$ denote the sum of its terms; let $a_{n}$ be a real sequence\ going to infinity with $n.$\ In a previous paper (\cite{BoniaCao}) it is proved that as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-16 Michel Broniatowski , Zhansheng Cao

In this paper we consider the estimation problem for high quantiles of a heavy-tailed distribution from block data when only a few largest values are observed within blocks. We propose estimators for high quantiles and prove that these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-27 Yongcheng Qi , Mengzi Xie , Jingping Yang

In traditional extreme value analysis, the bulk of the data is ignored, and only the tails of the distribution are used for inference. Extreme observations are specified as values that exceed a threshold or as maximum values over distinct…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-20 Mitchell Krock , Julie Bessac , Michael L. Stein , Adam H. Monahan

In optical non-linear processes rogue waves can be observed, which can be mathematically described by heavy-tailed distributions. These distributions are special due to the fact that the probability of registering extremely high intensities…

Optics · Physics 2021-05-26 Éva Rácz , László Ruppert , Radim Filip

A variety of estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution, the approximating distribution for excesses over a high threshold, have been proposed, always assuming the underlying data to be independent. We recently…

Applications · Statistics 2016-05-26 Lukas Martig , Jürg Hüsler

In this paper we propose a framework that enables the study of large deviations for point processes based on stationary sequences with regularly varying tails. This framework allows us to keep track not of the magnitude of the extreme…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-08-21 Henrik Hult , Gennady Samorodnitsky

We derive two-sided estimates for random multilinear forms (random chaoses) generated by independent symmetric random variables with logarithmically concave tails. Estimates are exact up to multiplicative constants depending only on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Konrad Kolesko , Rafał Latała

We consider the tail distribution of the edge cover time of a specific non-Markov process, $\delta$ once-reinforced random walk, on finite connected graphs, whose transition probability is proportional to weights of edges. Here the weights…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-09 Xiangyu Huang , Yong Liu , Kainan Xiang

Tail dependence models for distributions attracted to a max-stable law are fitted using observations above a high threshold. To cope with spatial, high-dimensional data, a rank-based M-estimator is proposed relying on bivariate margins…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-12 John Einmahl , Anna Kiriliouk , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-15 Quirin Vogel

We study numerically the distributions of the length $L$ of the longest increasing subsequence (LIS) for the two cases of random permutations and of one-dimensional random walks. Using sophisticated large-deviation algorithms, we are able…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-04-05 Jörn Börjes , Hendrik Schawe , Alexander K. Hartmann

Let $X$ be an $n\times n$ symmetric random matrix with independent but non-identically distributed entries. The deviation inequalities of the spectral norm of $X$ with Gaussian entries have been obtained by using the standard concentration…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-22 Guozheng Dai , Zhonggen Su , Hanchao Wang

There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-04 Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers , Michal Warchol

We establish upper and lower bounds with matching leading terms for tails of weighted sums of two-sided exponential random variables. This extends Janson's recent results for one-sided exponentials.

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Jiawei Li , Tomasz Tkocz

We obtain in this work a sharp estimate on the left tail of the distribution of the so-called derivative martingale in the $L^4$ phase, answering a conjecture by H. Lacoin, R. Rhodes & V. Vargas in the framework of the Gaussian branching…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-22 Benjamin Bonnefont , Vincent Vargas

This paper is concerned with the limiting spectral behaviors of large dimensional Kendall's rank correlation matrices generated by samples with independent and continuous components. We do not require the components to be identically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-16 Zeng Li , Qinwen Wang , Runze Li