Related papers: Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Pro…
We consider deterministic finite-horizon optimal control problems with a fixed initial state. We introduce an on-line policy iteration method, which, starting from a given policy, however obtained, generates a sequence of cost-improving…
The Hicks induced innovation hypothesis states that a price increase of a production factor is a spur to invention. We propose an alternative hypothesis restating that a spur to invention require not only an increase of one factor but also…
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
Kyle (1985) builds a pioneering and influential model, in which an insider with long-lived private information submits an optimal order in each period given the market maker's pricing rule. An inconsistency exists to some extent in the…
Thanks to the increasing availability in computing power, high-dimensional engineering problems seem to be at reach. But the curse of dimensionality will always prevent us to try out extensively all the hypotheses. There is a vast…
Quantitative technology forecasting uses quantitative methods to understand and project technological changes. It is a broad field encompassing many different techniques and has been applied to a vast range of technologies. A widely used…
In this research we study productivity trends of hybrid corn - an important subdomain of food production. We estimate the yearly rate of yield improvement of hybrid corn (measured as bushel per acre) by using both information on yields…
We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated…
The law of proportionate growth simply states that the time dependent change of a quantity $x$ is proportional to $x$. Its applicability to a wide range of dynamic phenomena is based on various assumptions for the proportionality factor,…
One of the greatest contributors of the 20th century among all academician in the field of statistical finance, M. F. M. Osborne published in 1956 [6] an essential paper and proposed to treat the question of stock market motion through the…
Artificial intelligence (AI) raises expectations of substantial increases in rates of technological and scientific progress, but such anticipations are often not connected to detailed ground-level studies of AI use in innovation processes.…
Forecasting is usually framed as a problem of model choice. This paper starts earlier, asking how much predictive information is available at each horizon. Under logarithmic loss, the answer is exact: the mutual information between the…
METR's time horizon metric has grown exponentially since 2019, along with compute. However, it is unclear whether compute scaling will persist at current rates through 2030, raising the question of how possible compute slowdowns might…
The development of inventions is theorized as a process of searching and recombining existing knowledge components. Previous studies under this theory have examined myriad characteristics of recombined knowledge and their performance…
In former work, we showed that a quantum algorithm is the sum over the histories of a classical algorithm that knows in advance 50% of the information about the solution of the problem - each history is a possible way of getting the…
Gemini said Lawmakers today face continuous calls to "future proof" the legal system against generative artificial intelligence, algorithmic decision-making, targeted advertising, and all manner of emerging technologies. This Article takes…
Taylor's law quantifies the scaling properties of the fluctuations of the number of innovations occurring in open systems. Urn based modelling schemes have already proven to be effective in modelling this complex behaviour. Here, we present…
There is growing importance to detecting faults and implementing the best methods in industrial and real-world systems. We are searching for the most trustworthy and practical data-based fault detection methods proposed by artificial…
Energy and power consumption are major limitations to continued scaling of computing systems. Inexactness, where the quality of the solution can be traded for energy savings, has been proposed as an approach to overcoming those limitations.…