Related papers: Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Pro…
Moore's law and two equations allow to explain the main trends of CPU evolution since MOS technologies have been used to implement microprocessors.
It has been suggested that innovations occur mainly by combination: the more inventions accumulate, the higher the probability that new inventions are obtained from previous designs. Additionally, it has been conjectured that the…
Weather prediction is one of the greatest scientific and technical successes of the last century. Today, National Meteorological Services routinely produce forecasts that have a major positive impact across society and many economic…
Successful materials innovations can transform society. However, materials research often involves long timelines and low success probabilities, dissuading investors who have expectations of shorter times from bench to business. A…
The operating status of power systems is influenced by growing varieties of factors, resulting from the developing sizes and complexity of power systems; in this situation, the modelbased methods need be revisited. A data-driven method, as…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
Developing a systematic view of where quantum computers will outperform classical ones is important for researchers, policy makers and business leaders. But developing such a view is challenging because quantum advantage analyses depend not…
Scientific research trends and interests evolve over time. The ability to identify and forecast these trends is vital for educational institutions, practitioners, investors, and funding organizations. In this study, we predict future trends…
Using a model in which agents compete to develop a potentially dangerous new technology (AI), we study how changes in the pricing of factors of production (computational resources) affect agents' strategies, particularly their spending on…
The Nobel-price winning Mirrlees' theory of optimal taxation inspired a long sequence of research on its refinement and enhancement. However, an issue of concern has been always the fact that, as was shown in many publications, the optimal…
We define {\em predictive information} $I_{\rm pred} (T)$ as the mutual information between the past and the future of a time series. Three qualitatively different behaviors are found in the limit of large observation times $T$: $I_{\rm…
With the widespread application of machine learning in financial risk management, conventional wisdom suggests that longer training periods and more feature variables contribute to improved model performance. This paper, focusing on…
Suppose we observe an invertible linear process with independent mean-zero innovations and with coefficients depending on a finite-dimensional parameter, and we want to estimate the expectation of some function under the stationary…
An increasingly large number of experiments study the labor productivity effects of automation technologies such as generative algorithms. A popular question in these experiments relates to inequality: does the technology increase output…
Technological developments and the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) are omnipresent themes and concerns of the present day. Much has been written on these topics but applications of quantitative models to understand the techno-social…
Bowley's law, also referred to as the law of the constant wage share, was a noteworthy empirical finding in economics, suggesting that a nation's wage share tended to remain stable over time, as observed through most of the 20th century.…
An important but understudied question in economics is how people choose when facing uncertainty in the timing of events. Here we study preferences over time lotteries, in which the payment amount is certain but the payment time is…
We consider the problem of repeatedly choosing policies to maximize social welfare. Welfare is a weighted sum of private utility and public revenue. Earlier outcomes inform later policies. Utility is not observed, but indirectly inferred.…
Economic complexity methods, and in particular relatedness measures, lack a systematic evaluation and comparison framework. We argue that out-of-sample forecast exercises should play this role, and we compare various machine learning models…
Television is an ever-evolving multi billion dollar industry. The success of a television show in an increasingly technological society is a vast multi-variable formula. The art of success is not just something that happens, but is studied,…