Related papers: Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Pro…
Deep time series forecasting has emerged as a rapidly growing field in recent years. Despite the exponential growth of community interests, progress on standard benchmarks is often limited to marginal improvements. A common consensus of the…
Different technological domains have significantly different rates of performance improvement. Prior theory indicates that such differing rates should influence the relative speed of diffusion of the products embodying the different…
What is the productivity of Science? Can we measure an evolution of the production of mathematicians over history? Can we predict the waiting time till the proof of a challenging conjecture such as the P-versus-NP problem? Motivated by…
Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…
Users can now give back energies to the grid using distributed resources. Proper incentive mechanisms are required for such users, also known as prosumers, in order to maximize the sell-back amount while maintaining the retailer's profit.…
If managers assume a normal or near-normal distribution of Information Technology (IT) project cost overruns, as is common, and cost overruns can be shown to follow a power-law distribution, managers may be unwittingly exposing their…
There is growing acknowledgement within the software engineering community that a theory of software development is needed to integrate the myriad methodologies that are currently popular, some of which are based on opposing perspectives.…
By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags spanning the…
This paper provides the first systematic economic analysis of token pricing in the large language model (LLM) inference market. Assembling a novel dataset integrating OpenRouter API data (318 models), Epoch AI records (3,237 models), and 62…
Forecasting agricultural markets remains challenging due to nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks, and sparse data. A long-standing belief holds that simple time-series methods outperform more advanced alternatives. This paper provides the…
Zipf's power-law distribution is a generic empirical statistical regularity found in many complex systems. However, rather than universality with a single power-law exponent (equal to 1 for Zipf's law), there are many reported deviations…
In this thought-provoking article, we discuss certain myths and legends that are folklore among members of the high-performance computing community. We gathered these myths from conversations at conferences and meetings, product…
With exponential growth in the human population, it is vital to conserve natural resources without compromising on producing enough food to feed everyone. Doing so can improve people's livelihoods, health, and ecosystems for the present and…
We exploit the heterogeneous impact of the Roe v. Wade ruling by the US Supreme Court, which ruled most abortion restrictions unconstitutional. Our identifying assumption is that states which had not liberalized their abortion laws prior to…
The notion of the "adjacent possible" has been advanced to theorize the generation of novelty across many different research domains. This study is an attempt to examine in what way the notion can be made empirically useful for innovation…
Energy is now a first-class design constraint along with performance in all computing settings. Energy predictive modelling based on performance monitoring counts (PMCs) is the leading method used for prediction of energy consumption during…
The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for…
Patent lawsuits are costly and time-consuming. An ability to forecast a patent litigation and time to litigation allows companies to better allocate budget and time in managing their patent portfolios. We develop predictive models for…
Functional technical performance usually follows an exponential dependence on time but the rate of change (the exponent) varies greatly among technological domains. This paper presents a simple model that provides an explanatory foundation…
We consider inventions as novel combinations of existing technological capabilities. Patent data allow us to explicitly identify such combinatorial processes in invention activities. Unconsidered in the previous research, not every new…