Related papers: Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Pro…

Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated…

Technologies have often been observed to improve exponentially over time. In practice this often means identifying a constant known as the doubling time, describing the time period over which the technology roughly doubles in some measure…

As it is pretty sure that Moore's law will end some day, questioning about the post-Moore era is more than interesting. Similarly, looking for new computing paradigms that could provide solutions is important. Revisiting the history of…

There is a common wisdom according to which many technologies can progress according to some exponential law like the empirical Moore's law that was validated for over half a century with the growth of transistors number in chipsets. As a…

We study long-run progress in artificial intelligence in a quantitative way. Many measures, including traditional ones such as patents and publications, machine learning benchmarks, and a new Aggregate State of the Art in ML (or ASOTA)…

We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the technological domains it relies on. Using data on US patents from 1836 to 2017, we make out-of-sample predictions and find…

This paper introduces a method for linking technological improvement rates (i.e. Moore's Law) and technology adoption curves (i.e. S-Curves). There has been considerable research surrounding Moore's Law and the generalized versions applied…

This paper presents a general theory that aims at explaining timescales observed empirically in technology transitions and predicting those of future transitions. This framework is used further to derive a theory for exploring the dynamics…

For the last 60 years, advances in conventional computing platforms have been driven by the empirical notion known as Moores law. In its essence, Moores law is a ubiquitous description of the exponential increase in transistor density…

Newton's laws of motion perfectly explain or approximate physical phenomena in our everyday life. Are there any laws that explain or approximate technology's rise or fall? After reviewing thirteen information technologies that succeeded,…

Denizens of Silicon Valley have called Moore's Law "the most important graph in human history," and economists have found that Moore's Law-powered I.T. revolution has been one of the most important sources of national productivity growth.…

Moore's Law has been used by semiconductor industry as predicative indicators of the industry and it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Now more people tend to agree that the original Moore's Law started to falter. This paper proposes a…

Without the ability to estimate and benchmark AI capability advancements, organizations are left to respond to each change reactively, impeding their ability to build viable mid and long-term strategies. This paper explores the recent…

We consider how to optimally allocate investments in a portfolio of competing technologies using the standard mean-variance framework of portfolio theory. We assume that technologies follow the empirically observed relationship known as…

While past information technology (IT) advances have transformed society, future advances hold even greater promise. For example, we have only just begun to reap the changes from artificial intelligence (AI), especially machine learning…

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial…

A fundamental problem in technological studies is how to measure the evolution of technology. The literature has suggested several approaches to measuring the level of technology (or state-of-the-art) and changes in technology. However, the…

Experience curves are widely used to predict the cost benefits of increasing the deployment of a technology. But how good are such forecasts? Can one predict their accuracy a priori? In this paper we answer these questions by developing a…

In this paper, the agent-based modeling is employed to model the effect of intellectual property policy at the speed of technological advancement. Every agent has inborn preferences towards investing their capital into independent…

Scientific and technological progress is largely driven by firms in many domains, including artificial intelligence and vaccine development. However, we do not know yet whether the success of firms' research activities exhibits dynamic…