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Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modeling sequential data, where the underlying states evolve in a stochastic manner and are only indirectly observable. Traditional HMM approaches are well-established for linear sequences,…
We present a new algorithm for discovering patterns in time series and other sequential data. We exhibit a reliable procedure for building the minimal set of hidden, Markovian states that is statistically capable of producing the behavior…
We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…
Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…
As deep neural networks continue to revolutionize various application domains, there is increasing interest in making these powerful models more understandable and interpretable, and narrowing down the causes of good and bad predictions. We…
Various probabilistic time series forecasting models have sprung up and shown remarkably good performance. However, the choice of model highly relies on the characteristics of the input time series and the fixed distribution that the model…
This paper presents new theory and methodology for the Bayesian estimation of overfitted hidden Markov models, with finite state space. The goal is then to achieve posterior emptying of extra states. A prior configuration is constructed…
In this study, we develop an approach to multivariate time series anomaly detection focused on the transformation of multivariate time series to univariate time series. Several transformation techniques involving Fuzzy C-Means (FCM)…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations, allowing nonparametric modelling of the population densities. Identifiability fails when the data is in fact independent and…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) can predict the future value of a time series based on its current and previous values, making it a powerful algorithm for handling various types of time series. Numerous studies have explored the improvement…
The hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) has become an important Bayesian nonparametric model for grouped data, such as document collections. The HDP is used to construct a flexible mixed-membership model where the number of components is…
This paper describes the conversion of a Hidden Markov Model into a finite state transducer that closely approximates the behavior of the stochastic model. In some cases the transducer is equivalent to the HMM. This conversion is especially…
Daily environments have profound influence on our health and behavior. Recent work has shown that digital envirotyping, where computer vision is applied to images of daily environments taken during ecological momentary assessment (EMA), can…
We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…
Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities, or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field…
Stochastic modelling is an essential component of the quantitative sciences, with hidden Markov models (HMMs) often playing a central role. Concurrently, the rise of quantum technologies promises a host of advantages in computational…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are ubiquitous in time-series modelling, with applications ranging from chemical reaction modelling to speech recognition. These HMMs are often large, with high-dimensional memories. A recently-proposed…
Since the early days of digital communication, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have now been routinely used in speech recognition, processing of natural languages, images, and in bioinformatics. An HMM $(X_i,Y_i)_{i\ge 1}$ assumes observations…
Modeling continuous-time physiological processes that manifest a patient's evolving clinical states is a key step in approaching many problems in healthcare. In this paper, we develop the Hidden Absorbing Semi-Markov Model (HASMM): a…
Constrained clustering has gained significant attention in the field of machine learning as it can leverage prior information on a growing amount of only partially labeled data. Following recent advances in deep generative models, we…