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Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…
We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…
We present two examples of finite-alphabet, infinite excess entropy processes generated by invariant hidden Markov models (HMMs) with countable state sets. The first, simpler example is not ergodic, but the second is. It appears these are…
Time series of conformational dynamics in proteins are usually evaluated with hidden Markov models (HMMs). This approach works well if the number of states and their connectivity is known. However, for the multi-domain protein Hsp90, a…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) comprise a powerful generative approach for modeling sequential data and time-series in general. However, the commonly employed assumption of the dependence of the current time frame to a single or multiple…
Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HQMMs) can be thought of as quantum probabilistic graphical models that can model sequential data. We extend previous work on HQMMs with three contributions: (1) we show how classical hidden Markov models…
This report explores the application of machine learning techniques on short timeseries gene expression data. Although standard machine learning algorithms work well on longer time-series', they often fail to find meaningful insights from…
Extending classical probabilistic reasoning using the quantum mechanical view of probability has been of recent interest, particularly in the development of hidden quantum Markov models (HQMMs) to model stochastic processes. However, there…
Hidden Markov models and their variants are the predominant sequential classification method in such domains as speech recognition, bioinformatics and natural language processing. Being generative rather than discriminative models, however,…
This paper describes the hierarchical infinite relational model (HIRM), a new probabilistic generative model for noisy, sparse, and heterogeneous relational data. Given a set of relations defined over a collection of domains, the model…
When analysing gene expression time series data an often overlooked but crucial aspect of the model is that the regulatory network structure may change over time. Whilst some approaches have addressed this problem previously in the…
This paper is concerned with the computational complexity of learning the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Although HMMs are some of the most widely used tools in sequential and time series modeling, they are cryptographically hard to learn in…
We investigate a novel modeling approach for end-to-end neural network training using hidden Markov models (HMM) where the transition probabilities between hidden states are modeled and learned explicitly. Most contemporary…
Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been widely used by scientists to model stochastic systems: the underlying process is a discrete Markov chain and the observations are noisy realizations of the underlying process. Determining the number of…
In pursuit of explainability, we develop generative models for sequential data. The proposed models provide state-of-the-art classification results and robust performance for speech phone classification. We combine modern neural networks…
Markov state models (MSMs) have been successful in computing metastable states, slow relaxation timescales and associated structural changes, and stationary or kinetic experimental observables of complex molecules from large amounts of…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used to model animal movement data and infer aspects of animal behavior. An HMM assumes that each data point from a time series of observations stems from one of $N$ possible states. The states are…
Diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) are trained flexibly to model extreme dependence in the data distribution; however, how to best utilize this information at inference time remains an open problem. In this work, we uncover an…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a classic modeling tool with a wide swath of applications. Its inception considered observations restricted to a finite alphabet, but it was quickly extended to multivariate continuous distributions. In this…
We recently derived analytical expressions for the pairwise (auto)correlation functions (CFs) between modular layers (MLs) in close-packed structures (CPSs) for the wide class of stacking processes describable as hidden Markov models (HMMs)…