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Jump diffusion processes are widely used to model asset prices over time, mainly for their ability to capture complex discontinuous behavior, but inference on the model parameters remains a challenge. Here our goal is posterior inference on…
Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…
Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…
Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…
Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…
The aim of this article is to prove that diffusion processes in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with a drift can be approximated by suitable Markov chains on $n^{-1}\mathbb{Z}^d$. Moreover, we investigate sufficient conditions on the conductances which…
We discuss a non-reversible, lifted Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for particle systems in which the direction of proposed displacements is changed deterministically. This algorithm sweeps through directions analogously to the…
Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a…
The most common way to sample from a probability distribution is to use Monte-Carlo methods. For distributions on a continuous state space, one can find diffusions with the target distribution as equilibrium measure, so that the state of…
Diffusion models (DMs) have recently shown outstanding capabilities in modeling complex image distributions, making them expressive image priors for solving Bayesian inverse problems. However, most existing DM-based methods rely on…
This article studies the convergence properties of trans-dimensional MCMC algorithms when the total number of models is finite. It is shown that, for reversible and some non-reversible trans-dimensional Markov chains, under mild conditions,…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
We present a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for detecting hidden variables in a continuous time Bayesian network (CTBN), which uses reversible jumps in the sense defined by (Green 1995). In common with several…
Recent developments in big data and analytics research have produced an abundance of large data sets that are too big to be analyzed in their entirety, due to limits on computer memory or storage capacity. To address these issues,…
We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…
This article considers Bayesian model inference on binary model spaces. Binary model spaces are used by a large class of models, including graphical models, variable selection, mixture distributions, and decision trees. Traditional…
This study proposes a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating parameters of lognormal distribution mixtures for income. Using simulated data examples, we examined the proposed algorithm's performance and the accuracy…
The distance dependent Chinese Restaurant Process (ddCRP) provides a flexible prior distribution for clustering observations, incorporating covariate information through pairwise distances and accommodating a rich variety of cluster…
Regional flood frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce estimation uncertainty when few data are available at the gauging site. In this work, a model that allows a non-null probability to a regional fixed shape parameter is…
In computational system biology, the mesoscopic model of reaction-diffusion kinetics is described by a continuous time, discrete space Markov process. To simulate diffusion stochastically, the jump coefficients are obtained by a…