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Parallel tempering (PT) methods are a popular class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes used to sample complex high-dimensional probability distributions. They rely on a collection of $N$ interacting auxiliary chains targeting tempered…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
Modelling random dynamical systems in continuous time, diffusion processes are a powerful tool in many areas of science. Model parameters can be estimated from time-discretely observed processes using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods…
We consider a 1-dimensional diffusion process X with jumps. The particularity of this model relies in the jumps which are driven by a multidimensional Hawkes process denoted N. This article is dedicated to the study of a nonparametric…
We present Diffusion Restore, a real-time framework for diffusion-based MCMC light transport. MCMC methods are highly suitable for sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions and for approximating integrals over them. In practice,…
The use of non-differentiable priors in Bayesian statistics has become increasingly popular, in particular in Bayesian imaging analysis. Current state of the art methods are approximate in the sense that they replace the posterior with a…
We consider the modeling of data generated by a latent continuous-time Markov jump process with a state space of finite but unknown dimensions. Typically in such models, the number of states has to be pre-specified, and Bayesian inference…
Statistical inference for discretely observed jump-diffusion processes is a complex problem which motivates new methodological challenges. Thus existing approaches invariably resort to time-discretisations which inevitably lead to…
Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) extends ordinary MCMC methods for use in Bayesian multimodel inference. We show that RJMCMC can be implemented as Gibbs sampling with alternating updates of a model indicator and a…
We present a simulation methodology for Bayesian estimation of rate parameters in Markov jump processes arising for example in stochastic kinetic models. To handle the problem of missing components and measurement errors in observed data,…
Suppose X is a multivariate diffusion process that is observed discretely in time. At each observation time, a transformation of the state of the process is observed with noise. The smoothing problem consists of recovering the path of the…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a popular and successful general-purpose tool for Bayesian inference. However, MCMC cannot be practically applied to large data sets because of the prohibitive cost of evaluating every likelihood term at…
Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…
Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes form a general class of non-diffusion stochastic models that involve both deterministic trajectories and random jumps at random times. In this paper, we state a new characterization of the jump rate…
We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…
We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajec- tories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive…
We recently demonstrated that standard fixed-time lattice random-walk models cannot be modified to properly represent biased diffusion processes in more than two dimensions. The origin of this fundamental limitation appears to be the fact…
Selection among alternative theoretical models given an observed data set is an important challenge in many areas of physics and astronomy. Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) is an extremely powerful technique for performing…
We describe a new MCMC method optimized for the sampling of probability measures on Hilbert space which have a density with respect to a Gaussian; such measures arise in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, and in conditioned…