Related papers: Heavy tailed solutions of multivariate smoothing t…

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance…

Consider the multivariate smoothing transform fixed-point equation: $\eta =$ law of $ \sum_{i=1}^N A_i Z_i$, where $N \geq 0$ is a random integer, $(A_i)_{i \geq 1}$ are $d \times d$ random nonnegative matrices, $(Z_i)_{i \geq 1}$ is a…

Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…

For a numerical sequence ${a_n}$ satisfying broad assumptions on its "behaviour on average" and a random walk $S_n=\xi_1 +...+\xi_n$ with i.i.d. jumps $\xi_j$ with positive mean $\mu$, we establish the asymptotic behaviour of the sums…

Let $\xi_1, \xi_2,\ldots$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with zero mean, finite second moment and regularly varying right distribution tail. Motivated by a stop-loss insurance model, we consider a…

Let $(X_n:n\geq 0)$ be a sequence of i.i.d. r.v.'s with negative mean. Set $S_0=0$ and define $S_n=X_1+... +X_n$. We propose an importance sampling algorithm to estimate the tail of $M=\max \{S_n:n\geq 0\}$ that is strongly efficient for…

We study the large-time asymptotic of renewal-reward processes with a heavy-tailed waiting time distribution. It is known that the heavy tail of the distribution produces an extremely slow dynamics, resulting in a singular large deviation…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk-sensitive objective for learning under rare but high-impact losses, yet its statistical behavior under heavy-tailed data remains poorly understood. Unlike expectation-based risk, CVaR…

Let $p>2$, $B\geq 1$, $N\geq n$ and let $X$ be a centered $n$-dimensional random vector with the identity covariance matrix such that $\sup\limits_{a\in S^{n-1}}{\mathrm E}|\langle X,a\rangle|^p\leq B$. Further, let $X_1,X_2,\dots,X_N$ be…

We construct an example of a continuous centered random process with light tails of finite-dimensional distribution but with heavy tail of maximum distribution.

Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…

We investigate the high-dimensional properties of robust regression estimators in the presence of heavy-tailed contamination of both the covariates and response functions. In particular, we provide a sharp asymptotic characterisation of…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

Let $\{X_i\}_{i\geq1}$ be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables and define, for $n\geq2$, \[T_n=\cases{n^{-1/2}\hat{\sigma}_n^{-1}S_n,\quad \hat{\sigma}_n>0,\cr 0,\quad \hat{\sigma}_n=0,}with S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i,…

Consider $n$ i.i.d. random elements on $C[0,1]$. We show that, under an appropriate strengthening of the domain of attraction condition, natural estimators of the extreme-value index, which is now a continuous function, and the normalizing…

A random vector $X$ with representation $X=\sum_{j\geq0}A_jZ_j$ is considered. Here, $(Z_j)$ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors and $(A_j)$ is a sequence of random matrices, `predictable' with respect to…

It is known that large deviations of sums of subexponential random variables are most likely realised by deviations of a single random variable. In this article we give a detailed picture of how subexponential random variables are…

We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…

We study invertibility of matrices of the form $D+R$ where $D$ is an arbitrary symmetric deterministic matrix, and $R$ is a symmetric random matrix whose independent entries have continuous distributions with bounded densities. We show that…