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Let $(B_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ be either a Bernoulli random walk or a Brownian motion with drift, and let $M_t:=\max\{B_s: 0\leq s\leq t\}$, $0\leq t\leq T$. This paper solves the general optimal prediction problem \sup_{0\leq\tau\leq…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-09 Pieter C. Allaart

This paper studies long range random walks on ${\mathbb{Z}_q}^d$. $X_{t+1} = X_t + Z_t \mod q$, with $(Z_t)$ independent and identically distributed. Multiple entries of $Z_t$ can be non-zero in a transition. An emphasis is on finding the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Robert Griffiths , Shuhei Mano

Consider a random walk $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i$ with independent and identically distributed real-valued increments with zero mean, finite variance and moment of order $2 + \delta$ for some $\delta>0$. For any starting point $x\in \mathbb R$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-13 Ion Grama , Hui Xiao

Consider a random walk $(S_n:n\geq0)$ with drift $-\mu$ and $S_0=0$. Assuming that the increments have exponential moments, negative mean, and are strongly nonlattice, we provide a complete asymptotic expansion (in powers of $\mu>0$) that…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

We prove a version of Nagaev's theorem for the branching random walk with heavy-tailed associated random walk. For a branching random walk on $\mathbb{R}$ we consider the random measure $Z_n = \sum_{|u|=n} e^{-V_u} \delta_{V_u}$ where…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-18 Jakob Stonner

We derive a perturbation expansion for general self-interacting random walks, where steps are made on the basis of the history of the path. Examples of models where this expansion applies are reinforced random walk, excited random walk, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Remco van der Hofstad , Mark Holmes

Let $\{S_n,n\geq 0\} $ be a random walk whose increments belong without centering to the domain of attraction of an $\alpha$-stable law $\{Y_t,t\geq 0\}$, i.e. $S_{nt}/a_n\Rightarrow Y_t,t\geq 0,$ for some scaling constants $a_n$. Assuming…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-15 Congzao Dong , Elena Dyakonova , Vladimir Vatutin

Consider a centred random walk in dimension one with a positive finite variance $\sigma^2$, and let $\tau_B$ be the hitting time for a bounded Borel set $B$ with a non-empty interior. We prove the asymptotic $P_x(\tau_B > n) \sim \sqrt{2 /…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-30 Vladislav Vysotsky

A connection is made between the random turns model of vicious walkers and random permutations indexed by their increasing subsequences. Consequently the scaled distribution of the maximum displacements in a particular asymmeteric version…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2007-05-23 P. J. Forrester

Let $\{\xi(k), k \in \mathbb{Z} \}$ be a stationary sequence of random variables and let $\{S_n, n \in \mathbb{N}_+ \}$ be a transient random walk in the domain of attraction of a stable law. In the previous work \cite{Nicolas_Ahmad}, under…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-19 Ahmad Darwiche

Subordinating a random walk to a renewal process yields a continuous time random walk (CTRW) model for diffusion, including the possibility of anomalous diffusion. Transition densities of scaling limits of power law CTRWs have been shown to…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-05-14 Peter Straka , Bruce Ian Henry

Random walks in random scenery are processes defined by $Z_n:=\sum_{k=1}^n\xi_{X_1+...+X_k}$, where basically $(X_k,k\ge 1)$ and $(\xi_y,y\in\mathbb Z)$ are two independent sequences of i.i.d. random variables. We assume here that $X_1$ is…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-16 Fabienne Castell , Nadine Guillotin--Plantard , Françoise Pène , Bruno Schapira

Random walks on expanders play a crucial role in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, derandomization, graph theory, and distributed computing. A desirable property is that they are rapidly mixing, which is equivalent to having a spectral…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-18 Sam Olesker-Taylor , Thomas Sauerwald , John Sylvester

Consider a branching random walk in which the offspring distribution and the moving law both depend on an independent and identically distributed random environment indexed by the time.For the normalised counting measure of the number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-01 Zhi-Qiang Gao , Quansheng Liu

Let $\left\{ Z_{n},n=0,1,2,...\right\} $ be a critical branching process in i.i.d. random environment, $Z_{r,n}$ be the number of particles in the process at moment $0\leq r\leq n-1$ that have a positive number of descendants in generation…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-24 V. A. Vatutin , E. E. Dyakonova

Two fundamental theorems by Spitzer/Erickson and Kesten/Maller on the fluctuation type (positive divergence, negative divergence or oscillation) of a real-valued random walk $(S_{n})_{n\ge 0}$ with iid increments $X_{1},X_{2},\ldots$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-13 Gerold Alsmeyer , Fabian Buckmann

We determine the large exceedance probabilities and large exceedance paths for the matrix recursive sequence $V_n = M_n V_{n-1} + Q_n, \: n=1,2,\ldots,$ where $\{M_n\}$ is an i.i.d. sequence of $d \times d$ random matrices and $\{ Q_n\}$ is…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-19 Jeffrey F. Collamore , Sebastian Mentemeier

We consider extremal processes and random walks generated by heavy-tailed random vectors taking values in $\mathbb{R}^d$ endowed with the $\ell_p$ metric. We establish limit theorems for the associated paths in the triangular array setting…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Bochen Jin , Ilya Molchanov

In this article, we study branching random walks on graphs modeling division-mutation processes inspired by adaptive immunity. We apply the theory of expander graphs on mutation rules in evolutionary processes and obtain estimates for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Irene Balelli , Vuk Milisic , Gilles Wainrib

We consider asymptotics for the maximum of a modulated random walk whose increments $\xi_n^{X_n}$ are heavy-tailed. Of particular interest is the case where the modulating process $X$ is regenerative. Here we study also the maximum of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Stan Zachary