English

Gaussian heat kernel asymptotics for conditioned random walks

Probability 2024-12-13 v1

Abstract

Consider a random walk Sn=i=1nXiS_n=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i with independent and identically distributed real-valued increments with zero mean, finite variance and moment of order 2+δ2 + \delta for some δ>0\delta>0. For any starting point xRx\in \mathbb R, let τx=inf{k1:x+Sk<0}\tau_x = \inf \left\{ k\geq 1: x+S_{k} < 0 \right\} denote the first time when the random walk x+Snx+S_n exits the half-line [0,)[0,\infty). We investigate the uniform asymptotic behavior over xRx\in \mathbb R of the persistence probability P(τx>n)\mathbb P (\tau_x >n) and the joint distribution P(x+Snu,τx>n)\mathbb{P} \left( x + S_n \leq u, \tau_x > n \right), for u0u\geq 0, as nn \to \infty. New limit theorems for these probabilities are established based on the heat kernel approximations. Additionally, we evaluate the rate of convergence by proving Berry-Esseen type bounds.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2412.08932,
  title  = {Gaussian heat kernel asymptotics for conditioned random walks},
  author = {Ion Grama and Hui Xiao},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.08932},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

37 pages, 2 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-28T20:31:53.883Z