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We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear. randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks, prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control.…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-11 I. B. Schwartz , L. Billings , E. M. Bollt

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Luke Murray Kearney , Emma L Davis , Matt J Keeling

This paper considers the classical Susceptible--Infected--Susceptible (SIS) network epidemic model, which describes a disease spreading through $n$ nodes, with the network links governing the possible transmission pathways of the disease…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-29 Liam Walsh , Mengbin Ye , Brian D. O. Anderson , Zhiyong Sun

We present a local spread model of disease transmission on a regular network and compare different control options ranging from treating the whole population to local control in a well-defined neighborhood of an infectious individual.…

Biological Physics · Physics 2015-05-30 Katarzyna Oles , Ewa Gudowska-Nowak , Adam Kleczkowski

We consider the spread of epidemics in technological and social networks. How do people react? Does awareness and cautious behavior help? We analyze these questions and present a dynamic model to describe the movement of individuals and/or…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-03-19 Robert Elsässer , Adrian Ogierman

We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-04 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari

The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases · Physics 2007-07-10 Anna Litvak-Hinenzon , Lewi Stone

Epidemics exhibit interconnected processes that operate at multiple time and organizational scales, a hallmark of complex adaptive systems. Modern epidemiological modeling frameworks incorporate feedback between individual-level behavioral…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-03-07 Baltazar Espinoza , Roger Sanchez , Jimmy Calvo-Monge , Fabio Sanchez

The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we show in this paper,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-15 Ka Yin Leung , Frank Ball , David Sirl , Tom Britton

Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-07-12 Leo Speidel , Konstantin Klemm , Víctor M. Eguíluz , Naoki Masuda

Much recent empirical evidence shows that \textit{community structure} is ubiquitous in the real-world networks. In this Letter, we propose a growth model to create scale-free networks with the tunable strength (noted by $Q$) of community…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Gang Yan , Zhong-Qian Fu , Jie Ren , Wen-Xu Wang

Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-08-17 Joel C. Miller

In this article we develop a highly integrated effective degree approach to modeling epidemic and awareness spreading processes on multiplex networks coupled with awareness-dependent adaptive rewiring. This approach keeps track of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-05 Xiao-Long Peng , Yi-Dan Zhang

We consider epidemic extinction in finite networks with broad variation in local connectivity. Generalizing the theory of large fluctuations to random networks with a given degree distribution, we are able to predict the most probable, or…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2016-07-07 Jason Hindes , Ira B. Schwartz

This paper is concerned with the analysis of vaccination strategies in a stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infected $\to$ removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals with a random network of social…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-11-16 Frank Ball , David Sirl

Societies experience politically stable and unstable phases along history, whereas political power is usually passed to new elite groups by these changes. Structural dynamics of the elites in a society have been proposed to be one of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-11-24 Alexander Jochim , Stefan Bornholdt

We propose a new method to immunize populations or computer networks against epidemics which is more efficient than any method considered before. The novelty of our method resides in the way of determining the immunization targets. First we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-03 Christian M. Schneider , Tamara Mihaljev , Hans J. Herrmann

Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-03-09 Kathinka Frieswijk , Lorenzo Zino , Ming Cao

The network paradigm is used to gain insight into the structural root causes of the resilience of consensus in dynamic collective behaviors, and to analyze the controllability of the swarm dynamics. Here we devise the dynamic signaling…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-01-14 Mohammad Komareji , Roland Bouffanais

By analysing the diffusive dynamics of epidemics and of distress in complex networks, we study the effect of the assortativity on the robustness of the networks. We first determine by spectral analysis the thresholds above which…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-11-26 Gregorio D'Agostino , Antonio Scala , Vinko Zlatić , Guido Caldarelli