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It was known from Metropolis et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 21 (1953) 1087--1092] that one can sample from a distribution by performing Monte Carlo simulation from a Markov chain whose equilibrium distribution is equal to the target distribution.…

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…

In the context of Monte Carlo sampling for lattice models, the complexity of the energy landscape often leads to Markov chains being trapped in local optima, thereby increasing the correlation between samples and reducing sampling…

Modern quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods often capture electron correlation through both explicitly correlating Jastrow factors and small to mid-sized configuration interaction (CI) expansions. Here, we study the additional optimization…

We consider the problem of computing an approximation to the integral $I=\int_{[0,1]^d}f(x) dx$. Monte Carlo (MC) sampling typically attains a root mean squared error (RMSE) of $O(n^{-1/2})$ from $n$ independent random function evaluations.…

Besides the well-known effect of autocorrelations in time series of Monte Carlo simulation data resulting from the underlying Markov process, using the same data pool for computing various estimates entails additional cross correlations.…

We establish epigraphical and uniform laws of large numbers for sample-based approximations of law invariant risk functionals. These sample-based approximation schemes include Monte Carlo (MC) and certain randomized quasi-Monte Carlo…

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) is a variance reduction method that leverages a multi-fidelity ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy levels. Constructing an MFMC estimator with optimal variance requires knowledge of the…

Monte Carlo sampling of any system may be analyzed in terms of an associated glass model -- a variant of the Random Energy Model -- with, whenever there is a sign problem, complex fields. This model has three types of phases (liquid, frozen…

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

A system to update estimates from a sequence of probability distributions is presented. The aim of the system is to quickly produce estimates with a user-specified bound on the Monte Carlo error. The estimates are based upon weighted…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a widely used sampling method in modern artificial intelligence and probabilistic computing systems. It involves repetitive random number generations and thus often dominates the latency of probabilistic…

Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is challenging when the likelihood function is irregular and expensive to compute. We explore several sampling algorithms that make use of subset evaluations to reduce computational…

Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling has become a standard technique for exploring the posterior distribution of cosmological parameters constrained by observations of CMB anisotropies. Given an infinite amount of time, any MCMC sampler will…

Estimating Monte Carlo error is critical to valid simulation results in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and initial sequence estimators were one of the first methods introduced for this. Over the last few years, focus has been on…

Boltzmann sampling based on Metropolis algorithm has been extensively used for simulating a canonical ensemble. An estimate of a mechanical property, like energy, of an equilibrium system, can be made by averaging over a large number…

As sample sizes grow, scalability has become a central concern in the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. One general approach to this problem, exemplified by the popular stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD)…

A core problem in statistics and probabilistic machine learning is to compute probability distributions and expectations. This is the fundamental problem of Bayesian statistics and machine learning, which frames all inference as…