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Sampling occupies an important position in theories of various scientific fields, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides the most common technique of sampling. In the progress of MCMC, a huge number of studies have aimed the…
We propose a novel framework of estimating systemic risk measures and risk allocations based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We consider a class of allocations whose jth component can be written as some risk measure of the jth…
We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency…
We propose a new generalized-ensemble algorithm, which we refer to as the multibaric-multithermal Monte Carlo method. The multibaric-multithermal Monte Carlo simulations perform random walks widely both in volume space and in potential…
Expectation values of physical quantities may accurately be obtained by the evaluation of integrals within Many-Body Quantum mechanics, and these multi-dimensional integrals may be estimated using Monte Carlo methods. In a previous…
Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…
As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…
Multimodal structures in the sampling density (e.g. two competing phases) can be a serious problem for traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), because correct sampling of the different structures can only be guaranteed for infinite…
In the context of Bayesian inversion for scientific and engineering modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies are the benchmark due to their flexibility and robustness in dealing with arbitrary posterior probability density…
Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…
The batch means estimator of the MCMC variance is a simple and effective measure of accuracy for MCMC based ergodic averages. Under various regularity conditions, the estimator has been shown to be consistent for the true variance. However,…
Many problems in the physical sciences, machine learning, and statistical inference necessitate sampling from a high-dimensional, multi-modal probability distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, the ubiquitous tool for this…
We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…
In this paper we study asymptotic properties of different data-augmentation-type Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms sampling from mixture models comprising discrete as well as continuous random variables. Of particular interest to us is…
We introduce a new path integral Monte Carlo method for investigating nonadiabatic systems in thermal equilibrium and demonstrate an approach to reducing stochastic error. We derive a general path integral expression for the partition…
The simulation of the expectation of a stochastic quantity E[Y] by Monte Carlo methods is known to be computationally expensive especially if the stochastic quantity or its approximation Y_n is expensive to simulate, e.g., the solution of a…
The efficiency of Monte Carlo samplers is dictated not only by energetic effects, such as large barriers, but also by entropic effects that are due to the sheer volume that is sampled. The latter effects appear in the form of an entropic…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are essential tools in computational statistics for sampling from unnormalised probability distributions, but can be fragile when targeting high-dimensional, multimodal, or complex target…
In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…