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Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are sampling methods that have become a commonly used tool in statistics, for example to perform Monte Carlo integration. As a consequence of the increase in computational power, many variations of…
We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…
Bayesian inference for factorial hidden Markov models is challenging due to the exponentially sized latent variable space. Standard Monte Carlo samplers can have difficulties effectively exploring the posterior landscape and are often…
Modern problems in astronomical Bayesian inference require efficient methods for sampling from complex, high-dimensional, often multi-modal probability distributions. Most popular methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, perform…
Monte Carlo computer simulations are virtually the only way to analyze the thermodynamic behavior of a system in a precise way. However, the various existing methods exhibit extreme differences in their efficiency, depending on model…
Many biochemical systems appearing in applications have a multiscale structure so that they converge to piecewise deterministic Markov processes in a thermodynamic limit. The statistics of the piecewise deterministic process can be obtained…
Motivated by applications to 3D printing, this paper presents two algorithms for calculating an ensemble of solutions to heat conduction problems. The ensemble average is the most likely temperature distribution and its variance gives an…
We demonstrate the use of Metropolis Monte Carlo simulations and a two-state fluctuating ratchet model to predict the distribution of microscopic properties in a sample of Brownian motors. Our scheme only uses the information about the mean…
We study approximations of evolving probability measures by an interacting particle system. The particle system dynamics is a combination of independent Markov chain moves and importance sampling/resampling steps. Under global regularity…
Boson sampling is a promising candidate for quantum supremacy. It requires to sample from a complicated distribution, and is trusted to be intractable on classical computers. Among the various classical sampling methods, the Markov chain…
Invention involves combination, or more precisely, ratios of composition. According to Thomas Edison, "Genius is one percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration" is an example. In many situations, researchers and inventors already have…
We propose a new variational Monte Carlo (VMC) method with an energy variance extrapolation for large-scale shell-model calculations. This variational Monte Carlo is a stochastic optimization method with a projected correlated condensed…
In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…
We present predictions for the statistical error due to finite sampling in the presence of thermal fluctuations in molecular simulation algorithms. Specifically, we establish how these errors depend on Mach number, Knudsen number, number of…
When implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, perturbation caused by numerical errors is sometimes inevitable. This paper studies how perturbation of MCMC affects the convergence speed and Monte Carlo estimation accuracy.…
By facilitating the generation of samples from arbitrary probability distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is, arguably, \emph{the} tool for the evaluation of Bayesian inference problems that yield non-standard posterior…
In this article we propose a novel MCMC method based on deterministic transformations T: X x D --> X where X is the state-space and D is some set which may or may not be a subset of X. We refer to our new methodology as Transformation-based…
Empirical relationships are derived for the expected sampling error of quantile estimations using Monte Carlo experiments for two frequency distributions frequently encountered in climate sciences. The relationships found are expressed as a…
An efficient simulation-based methodology is proposed for the rolling window estimation of state space models, called particle rolling Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with double block sampling. In our method, which is based on Sequential…
Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…