Related papers: Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

Landslide inventories show that the statistical distribution of the area of recorded events is well described by a power law over a range of decades. To understand these distributions, we consider a cellular automaton to model a time and…

The rate of terror attacks has surged over the past decade, resulting in the tragic and senseless loss or alteration of numerous lives. Offenders behind mass shootings, bombings, or other domestic terrorism incidents have historically…

In engineering systems, it is usually assumed that lifetimes of components are independent and identically distributed (iid). But, the failure of a component results in a higher load on the remaining components and hence causes the…

Detecting changepoints in datasets with many variates is a data science challenge of increasing importance. Motivated by the problem of detecting changes in the incidence of terrorism from a global terrorism database, we propose a novel…

Stochastic dynamical systems allow modelling of transitions induced by disturbances, in particular from an attracting equilibrium and crossing the stable manifold of a saddle. In the small-noise limit, the probability of such transitions is…

Learning-based methods have been successful in solving complex control tasks without significant prior knowledge about the system. However, these methods typically do not provide any safety guarantees, which prevents their use in…

We study dynamic risk measures in a very general framework enabling to model uncertainty and processes with jumps. We previously showed the existence of a canonical equivalence class of probability measures hidden behind a given set of…

In this paper, we propose a shot noise-based leaky integrated and firing neuron model and provide a detailed analysis of the performance of this model compared to the traditional diffusion approximated model. In theoretical neuroscience,…

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…

The increasing adoption of Reinforcement Learning in safety-critical systems domains such as autonomous vehicles, health, and aviation raises the need for ensuring their safety. Existing safety mechanisms such as adversarial training,…

This paper presents a method for estimating parameters that form a general model for human pilot response for specific tasks. The human model is essential for the dynamic analysis of piloted vehicles. Data are generated on a simulator with…

Neural networks, being susceptible to adversarial attacks, should face a strict level of scrutiny before being deployed in critical or adversarial applications. This paper uses ideas from Chaos Theory to explain, analyze, and quantify the…

Perceptual decision making is the subject of many experimental and theoretical studies. Whereas most modeling analysis are based on statistical processes of accumulation of evidence, less attention is being devoted to the modeling with…

A model for terrorism is presented using the theory of percolation. Terrorism power is related to the spontaneous formation of random backbones of people who are sympathetic to terrorism but without being directly involved in it. They just…

This paper studies a dynamic discrete-time queuing model where at every period players get a new job and must send all their jobs to a queue that has a limited capacity. Players have an incentive to send their jobs as late as possible;…

In this paper, we propose a self-triggered formulation of Model Predictive Control for continuous-time nonlinear input-affine networked control systems. Our control method specifies not only when to execute control tasks but also provides a…

Developing spatio-temporal crime prediction models, and to a lesser extent, developing measures of accuracy and operational efficiency for them, has been an active area of research for almost two decades. Despite calls for rigorous and…

Economic competition and deregulation have led to a polarization of societies between a small, increasingly powerful elite and a majority of socially excluded individuals, marginalized and unconnected to political representations. This is…

The best known methods for estimating hazard rate functions in survival analysis models are either purely parametric or purely nonparametric. The parametric ones are sometimes too biased while the nonparametric ones are sometimes too…

Queuing models provide insight into the temporal inhomogeneity of human dynamics, characterized by the broad distribution of waiting times of individuals performing tasks. We study the queuing model of an agent trying to execute a task of…