Related papers: Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in different contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the essential dynamics of survival analysis,…
Analysis of gun violence in the United States has utilized various models based on spatiotemporal point processes. Previous studies have identified a contagion effect in gun violence, characterized by bursts of diffusion across urban…
A novel model of intermittency is presented in which the dynamics of the rates of energy transfer between successive steps in the energy cascade is described by a hierarchy of stochastic differential equations. The probability distribution…
It is a common phenomenon in nature and technology that a system under perturbations exits a regime of its usual dynamics. Often it is possible to define a potential function whereby a potential well can be associated with a usual or…
The following is a write up of the progress of modeling data from the K12 organization \cite{Riedman_2023}. Data was characterized and investigated for statistically significant factors. The incident data was spilt into three sets: the…
A discrete-time random process is described which can generate bursty sequences of events. A Bernoulli process, where the probability of an event occurring at time $t$ is given by a fixed probability $x$, is modified to include a memory…
In the recent years, the problem of identifying suspicious behavior has gained importance and identifying this behavior using computational systems and autonomous algorithms is highly desirable in a tactical scenario. So far, the solutions…
Trajectory prediction is a key element of autonomous vehicle systems, enabling them to anticipate and react to the movements of other road users. Evaluating the robustness of prediction models against adversarial attacks is essential to…
A class of dynamic threshold models is proposed, for describing the upset of collective actions in social networks. The agents of the network have to decide whether to undertake a certain action or not. They make their decision by comparing…
Suicide bombing is an infamous form of terrorism that is becoming increasingly prevalent in the current era of global terror warfare. We consider the case of targeted attacks of this kind, and the use of detectors distributed over the area…
A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node…
For discrete panel data, the dynamic relationship between successive observations is often of interest. We consider a dynamic probit model for short panel data. A problem with estimating the dynamic parameter of interest is that the model…
In recent years, numerous advances have been made in understanding how epidemic dynamics is affected by changes in individual behaviours. We propose an SIS-based compartmental model to tackle the simultaneous and coupled evolution of an…
Terrorism is one of the most life-challenging threats facing humanity worldwide. The activities of terrorist organizations threaten peace, disrupts progress, and halt the development of any nation. Terrorist activities in Nigeria in the…
We consider an operational model of suicide bombing attacks -- an increasingly prevalent form of terrorism -- against specific targets, and the use of protective countermeasures based on the deployment of detectors over the area under…
Humans are interactive agents driven to seek out situations with interesting physical dynamics. Here we formalize the functional form of physical intrinsic motivation. We first collect ratings of how interesting humans find a variety of…
The problem of detecting the presence of a signal that can lead to a disaster is studied. A decision-maker collects data sequentially over time. At some point in time, called the change point, the distribution of data changes. This change…
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern in national and international security, as its spread is seen as an existential threat to Western liberal democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the spread of terrorism…
Quantities with right-skewed distributions are ubiquitous in complex social systems, including political conflict, economics and social networks, and these systems sometimes produce extremely large events. For instance, the 9/11 terrorist…