Related papers: Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity
The author of this article considers a numerical method that uses high-precision calculations to construct approximations to attractors of dynamical systems of chaotic type with a quadratic right-hand side, as well as to find the vertical…
We propose a model predictive control approach for autonomous vehicles that exploits learned Gaussian processes for predicting human driving behavior. The proposed approach employs the uncertainty about the GP's prediction to achieve…
Since 2009, Moving Target Defense (MTD) has become a new paradigm of defensive mechanism that frequently changes the state of the target system to confuse the attacker. This frequent change is costly and leads to a trade-off between…
This paper is concerned with a family of Reaction-Diffusion systems that we introduced in [15], and that generalizes the SIR type models from epidemiology. Such systems are now also used to describe collective behaviors.In this paper, we…
The advancement and adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) models across diverse domains have transformed the way we interact with technology. However, it is essential to recognize that while AI models have introduced remarkable…
The ability to understand and eventually predict the emergence of information and activation cascades in social networks is core to complex socio-technical systems research. However, the complexity of social interactions makes this a…
The effect that different police protest management methods have on protesters' physical and mental trauma is still not well understood and is a matter of debate. In this paper, we take a two-pronged approach to gain insight into this…
A probabilistic model describes a system in its observational state. In many situations, however, we are interested in the system's response under interventions. The class of structural causal models provides a language that allows us to…
The spread of radical ideologies is a key to fanaticism, recruitment and terrorist activities. Hence, preventing such activities requires predictive models capable of identifying areas and agents before occurrence of catastrophic terrorist…
Autonomous vehicles (AV) look set to become common on our roads within the next few years. However, to achieve the final breakthrough, not only functional progress is required, but also satisfactory safety assurance must be provided. Among…
A nonlinear time-delay model is proposed to describe the interaction dynamics between criminal and non-criminal populations, combining social influence mechanisms, saturation effects represented by a Holling type II functional response, and…
Forecasting the number of trips in bike-sharing systems and its volatility over time is crucial for planning and optimizing such systems. This paper develops timeseries models to forecast hourly count timeseries data, and estimate its…
Path planning in dynamic environments is essential to high-risk applications such as unmanned aerial vehicles, self-driving cars, and autonomous underwater vehicles. In this paper, we generate collision-free trajectories for a robot within…
This study applies complexity sciences to analyze the game of Padel. Data from 18 professional matches were collected, and the probability distributions of the total number of shots and the probability distribution of rallies' duration were…
Normative decision theory proves inadequate for modeling human responses to the social-engineering campaigns of Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) attacks. Behavioral decision theory fares better, but still falls short of capturing…
Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…
One of the most disastrous forms of collective human behaviour is the kind of crowd stampede induced by panic, often leading to fatalities as people are crushed or trampled. Sometimes this behaviour is triggered in life-threatening…
Event-based state estimation can achieve estimation quality comparable to traditional time-triggered methods, but with a significantly lower number of samples. In networked estimation problems, this reduction in sampling instants does,…
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations outlines 17 goals as global challenges for countries of the world to address in their development. However, the progress of countries towards these goals has been much slower…
In this work, the spread of crime dynamics in the US is analyzed from a mathematical scope, an epidemiological model is established, including five compartments: Susceptible (S), Latent 1 (E1), Latent 2 (E2), Incarcerated (I), and Recovered…