Related papers: Limit experiments of GARCH
Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…
One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…
The irreducible decomposition of successive restriction and induction of irreducible representations of a symmetric group gives rise to a Markov chain on Young diagrams keeping the Plancherel measure invariant. Starting from this Res-Ind…
We prove existence and uniqueness of a stationary distribution and absolute regularity for nonlinear GARCH and INGARCH models of order (p,q). In contrast to previous work we impose, besides a geometric drift condition, only a…
In this paper, a new type of the discrete fractional Gr{\"o}nwall inequality is developed, which is applied to analyze the stability and convergence of a Galerkin spectral method for a linear time-fractional subdiffusion equation. Based on…
We study the rate of convergence to equilibrium of the self-repellent random walk and its local time process on the discrete circle $\mathbb{Z}_n$. While the self-repellent random walk alone is non-Markovian since the jump rates depend on…
Monte Carlo simulation is one of the most important tools in the study of diffusion processes. For constant diffusion coefficients, an appropriate Gaussian distribution of particle's steplengths can generate exact results, when compared…
We consider an infinite-dimensional stochastic clustering model on $\mathbb{R}$. In discrete time, each point of a unit-intensity simple point process moves halfway toward either of its left or right neighbors, chosen uniformly at random.…
This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model…
Finding parametric models that accurately describe the dependence structure of observed data is a central task in the analysis of time series. Classical frequency domain methods provide a popular set of tools for fitting and diagnostics of…
The log returns of financial time series are usually modeled by means of the stationary GARCH(1,1) stochastic process or its generalizations which can not properly describe the nonstationary deterministic components of the original series.…
Multifractal systems usually have singularity spectra defined on bounded sets of H\"older exponents. As a consequence, their associated multifractal scaling exponents are expected to depend linearly upon statistical moment orders at high…
We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…
Multivariate GARCH models are important tools to describe the dynamics of multivariate times series of financial returns. Nevertheless, these models have been much less used in practice due to the lack of reliable software. This paper…
In this paper, we consider a diffusion process with jumps whose drift and jump coefficient depend on an unknown parameter. We then give a self-contained proof of the local asymptotic mixed normality (LAMN) property when the process is…
In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a non-stationary gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval,…
We prove the convergence of the law of grid-valued random walks, which can be seen as time-space Markov chains, to the law of a general diffusion process. This includes processes with sticky features, reflecting or absorbing boundaries and…
In this study, we develop a unified volatility modeling framework that embeds GARCH dynamics directly within recurrent neural networks. We propose two interpretable hybrid architectures, GARCH-GRU and GARCH-LSTM, that integrate the…
We perform a detailed comparison between a Markov Switching Jump Diffusion Model and a Markov Switching {\alpha}-Stable Distribution Model with respect to the analysis of non-stationary data. We show that the jump diffusion model is…
We develop misspecification tests for building additive time-varying (ATV-)GARCH models. In the model, the volatility equation of the GARCH model is augmented by a deterministic time-varying intercept modeled as a linear combination of…