Related papers: Epidemiological models with parametric heterogenei…
A plethora of prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Prediction performances not only depend on the structure and features of the model, but also on its parametrization. Official databases are often biased due…
We present a model of contagion that unifies and generalizes existing models of the spread of social influences and micro-organismal infections. Our model incorporates individual memory of exposure to a contagious entity (e.g., a rumor or…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
Mathematical modeling of epidemic propagation on networks is extended to hypergraphs in order to account for both the community structure and the nonlinear dependence of the infection pressure on the number of infected neighbours. The exact…
We predict the future course of ongoing susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemics on regular, Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi and Barab\'asi-Albert networks. It is known that the contact network influences the spread of an epidemic within a…
Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
We extend the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to a network-based framework where the degree distribution of nodes follows a Poisson distribution. This extension incorporates an additional parameter representing the mean…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…
This paper is devoted to the study of an age-structured SIRS epidemic model, in which a population affected by a disease is divided into susceptible, infected, and removed individuals. We assume that the force of infection may be nonlinear…
Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses,…
Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We present a methodology providing a one-directional link from within-host individual heterogeneity to population-level disease transmission dynamics. The methodology works in several steps. A within-host model is investigated numerically…
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model is a canonical model for emerging disease outbreaks. Such outbreaks are naturally modeled as taking place on networks. A theoretical challenge in network epidemiology is the dynamic correlations…
A pandemic is the spread of a disease across large regions, and can have devastating costs to the society in terms of health, economic and social. As such, the study of effective pandemic mitigation strategies can yield significant positive…
Over the years numerous models of SIS (susceptible - infected - susceptible) disease dynamics unfolding on networks have been proposed. Here, we discuss the links between many of these models and how they can be viewed as more general…