Related papers: On the Testing of Seismicity Models
Probabilistic classifiers output a probability distribution on target classes rather than just a class prediction. Besides providing a clear separation of prediction and decision making, the main advantage of probabilistic models is their…
We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and…
This study develops a framework for testing hypotheses on structural parameters in incomplete models. Such models make set-valued predictions and hence do not generally yield a unique likelihood function. The model structure, however,…
The traditional activity of model selection aims at discovering a single model superior to other candidate models. In the presence of pronounced noise, however, multiple models are often found to explain the same data equally well. To…
The last decade has seen max-stable processes emerge as a common tool for the statistical modeling of spatial extremes. However, their application is complicated due to the unavailability of the multivariate density function, and so…
Many embedded and real-time systems have a inherent probabilistic behaviour (sensors data, unreliable hardware,...). In that context, it is crucial to evaluate system properties such as "the probability that a particular hardware fails".…
We study approaches to robust model-based design of experiments in the context of maximum-likelihood estimation. These approaches provide robustification of model-based methodologies for the design of optimal experiments by accounting for…
In our paper published earlier we discussed forecasts of earthquake focal mechanism and ways to test the forecast efficiency. Several verification methods were proposed, but they were based on ad-hoc, empirical assumptions, thus their…
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to detect heteroskedasticity in regression models with regressors contaminated by measurement error. Specifically, inspired by the integrated conditional moment (ICM) approach, we construct test…
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the…
It is of growing concern to ensure resilience in power distribution systems to extreme weather events. However, there are no clear methodologies or metrics available for resilience assessment that allows system planners to assess the impact…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…
Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…
Robustness of linear systems with constant coefficients is considered. There exist methods and tools for analyzing the stability of systems with random or deterministic uncertainties. At the same time, there are no approaches for the…
Seismicity and faulting within the Earth crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase…
Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…
State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…
As an integral part of assessing the seismic performance of structures, the probabilistic seismic demand-intensity relationship has been widely studied. In this study, the phenomenon of heteroscedasticity in probabilistic seismic demand…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…
Structural reliability analysis is concerned with estimation of the probability of a critical event taking place, described by $P(g(\textbf{X}) \leq 0)$ for some $n$-dimensional random variable $\textbf{X}$ and some real-valued function…