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Weak consistency and asymptotic normality of the ordinary least-squares estimator in a linear regression with adaptive learning is derived when the crucial, so-called, `gain' parameter is estimated in a first step by nonlinear least squares…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-11 Alexander Mayer

The conditional autoregressive (CAR) model, simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model, and its variants have become the predominant strategies for modeling regional or areal-referenced spatial data. The overwhelming wide-use of the CAR/SAR…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-18 Sudipto Saha , Jonathan R. Bradley

We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Hanna Gruber , Moritz Jirak

We prove mixing convergence of the least squares estimator of autoregressive parameters for supercritical autoregressive processes of order 2 with Gaussian innovations having real characteristic roots with different absolute values. We use…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-16 Matyas Barczy , Fanni Nedényi , Gyula Pap

During the last two decades, locally stationary processes have been widely studied in the time series literature. In this paper we consider the locally-stationary vector-auto-regression model of order one, or LS-VAR(1), and estimate its…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-26 Giovanni Motta

Autoregressive networks can achieve promising performance in many sequence modeling tasks with short-range dependence. However, when handling high-dimensional inputs and outputs, the huge amount of parameters in the network lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-10 Di Wang , Feiqing Huang , Jingyu Zhao , Guodong Li , Guangjian Tian

Many nonlinear time series models have been proposed in the last decades. Among them, the models with regime switchings provide a class of versatile and interpretable models which have received a particular attention in the literature. In…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-20 Pierre Ailliot , Francoise Pene

In this paper, we study the estimation of the threshold predictive regression model with hybrid stochastic local unit root predictors. We demonstrate the estimation procedure and derive the asymptotic distribution of the least square…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-05-16 Christis Katsouris

We derive generalization error bounds for stationary univariate autoregressive (AR) models. We show that imposing stationarity is enough to control the Gaussian complexity without further regularization. This lets us use structural risk…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-06-06 Daniel J. McDonald , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi , Mark Schervish

We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of $\mathbb{R}$. An order-$1$ autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-17 Laya Ghodrati , Victor M. Panaretos

In this paper the integer-valued autoregressive model of order one, contaminated with additive or innovational outliers is studied in some detail. Moreover, parameter estimation is also addressed. Supposing that the time points of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-02-28 Matyas Barczy , Marton Ispany , Gyula Pap , Manuel Scotto , Maria Eduarda Silva

In this paper we introduce a modified version of a gaussian standard first-order autoregressive process where we allow for a dependence structure between the state variable $Y_{t-1}$ and the next innovation $\xi_t$. We call this model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-12 Fabio Gobbi , Sabrina Mulinacci

We discuss nonparametric estimation of the distribution function $G(x)$ of the autoregressive coefficient $a \in (-1,1)$ from a panel of $N$ random-coefficient AR(1) data, each of length $n$, by the empirical distribution function of lag 1…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-06 Remigijus Leipus , Anne Philippe , Vytautė Pilipauskaitė , Donatas Surgailis

Series of univariate distributions indexed by equally spaced time points are ubiquitous in applications and their analysis constitutes one of the challenges of the emerging field of distributional data analysis. To quantify such…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Changbo Zhu , Hans-Georg Müller

In this paper, we study non-asymptotic deviation bounds of the least squares estimator in Gaussian AR($n$) processes. By relying on martingale concentration inequalities and a tail-bound for $\chi^2$ distributed variables, we provide a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-26 Rodrigo A. González , Cristian R. Rojas

This paper examines the asymptotic inference for AR(1) models with a possible structural break in the AR parameter $\beta $ near the unity at an unknown time $k_{0}$. Consider the model $y_{t}=\beta_{1}y_{t-1}I\{t\leq k_{0}\}+\beta…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-07 Pang Tianxiao , Zhang Danna , Chong Terence Tai-Leung

In the one-parameter regression model with AR(1) and AR(2) errors we find explicit expressions and a continuous approximation of the optimal discrete design for the signed least square estimator. The results are used to derive the optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-12 Holger Dette , Andrey Pepelyshev , Anatoly Zhigljavsky

We consider a classical First-order Vector AutoRegressive (VAR(1)) model, where we interpret the autoregressive interaction matrix as influence relationships among the components of the VAR(1) process that can be encoded by a weighted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Bixuan Liu

For each $\lambda>0$ and every square-integrable infinitely-divisible (ID) distribution there exists at least one stationary stochastic process $t\mapsto X_t$ with the specified distribution for $X_1$ and with first-order autoregressive…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-02 Robert L Wolpert

This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-30 Peter Martey Addo