Related papers: Editorial
This article attempts to place the emergence of probabilistic numerics as a mathematical-statistical research field within its historical context and to explore how its gradual development can be related both to applications and to a modern…
We outline a model and algorithm to perform inference on the palaeoclimate and palaeoclimate volatility from pollen proxy data. We use a novel multivariate non-linear non-Gaussian state space model consisting of an observation equation…
Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…
The public understanding of climate change plays a critical role in translating climate science into climate action. In the public discourse, climate impacts are often discussed in the context of extreme weather events. Here, we analyse 65…
The topic of Climate Change (CC) has received limited attention in NLP despite its urgency. Activists and policymakers need NLP tools to effectively process the vast and rapidly growing unstructured textual climate reports into structured…
We study citation dynamics of the Physics, Economics, and Mathematics papers published in 1984 and focus on the fraction of uncited papers in these three collections. Our model of citation dynamics, which considers citation process as an…
Breiman challenged statisticians to think more broadly, to step into the unknown, model-free learning world, with him paving the way forward. Statistics community responded with slight optimism, some skepticism, and plenty of disbelief.…
The cost of the impacts of climate change have already proven to be larger than previously believed. Understanding the costs and benefits of adapting to the changing climate is necessary to make targeted and appropriate investment…
In this article, the notion of a mathematical model in science is attempted to be enlightened from several points of view. In particular, it is shown that mathematical models are introduced differently and used differently in different…
Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…
Scholarly article impact reflects the significance of academic output recognised by academic peers, and it often plays a crucial role in assessing the scientific achievements of researchers, teams, institutions and countries. It is also…
The use of historical estimates in current studies is common in a wide variety of application areas. Nevertheless, despite their routine use the uncertainty associated with historical estimates is rarely properly accounted for in the…
This article challenges the assumption that journals and peer review are essential for developing,evaluating and disseminating scientific and other academic knowledge. It suggests a more flexible ecosystem, and examines some of the…
Understanding human dynamics is of major scientific and practical importance and can be increasingly addressed in a quantitative fashion thanks to electronic records capturing various human activity patterns. The authors of Ref. [1] revisit…
This chapter aims to inform a practitioner about current methods for predicting potential distributions of invasive species. It mostly addresses single species models, covering the conceptual bases, touching on mechanistic models, and then…
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…
We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the…
Majorisation, also called rearrangement inequalities, yields a type of stochastic ordering in which two or more distributions can be compared. In this paper we argue that majorisation is a good candidate as a theory for uncertainty. We…
A toy-model of publications and citations processes is proposed. The model shows that the role of randomness in the processes is essential and cannot be ignored. Some other aspects of scientific publications rating are discussed.
Scientometers and sociologists of science have spilled much ink on the topic of peer review over the past twenty years, given its primordial role in a context marked by the exponential growth of scientific production and the proliferation…