Related papers: Epidemic prediction and control in clustered popul…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing…
In this paper, a branching process approximation for the spread of a Reed-Frost epidemic on a network with tunable clustering is derived. The approximation gives rise to expressions for the epidemic threshold and the probability of a large…
We develop a feedback control method for networked epidemic spreading processes. In contrast to most prior works which consider mean field, open-loop control schemes, the present work develops a novel framework for feedback control of…
As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual…
Until recently obtaining data on populations of networks was typically rare. However, with the advancement of automatic monitoring devices and the growing social and scientific interest in networks, such data has become more widely…
Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…
Mathematical modeling of disease spreading plays a crucial role in understanding, controlling and preventing epidemic outbreaks. In a microscopic description of the propagation of a disease over the complex network of human contacts, the…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
We propose and solve exactly a model of a network that has both a tunable degree distribution and a tunable clustering coefficient. Among other things, our results indicate that increased clustering leads to a decrease in the size of the…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
The interplay of biological, social, structural and random factors makes disease forecasting extraordinarily complex. The course of an epidemic exhibits average growth dynamics determined by features of the pathogen and the population, yet…
In presence of long range dispersal, epidemics spread in spatially disconnected regions known as clusters. Here, we characterize exactly their statistical properties in a solvable model, in both the supercritical (outbreak) and critical…
Consider stochastic models for the spread of an infection in a structured community, where this structured community is itself described by a random network model. Some common network models and transmission models are defined and large…
The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…
Age structure is incorporated in many types of epidemic model. Often it is convenient to assume that such models converge to early asymptotic behaviour quickly, before the susceptible population has been appreciably depleted. We make use of…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
The decision of whether or not to vaccinate is a complex one. It involves the contribution both to a social good -- herd immunity -- and to one's own well being. It is informed by social influence, personal experience, education, and mass…
We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear. randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks, prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control.…
The initial phase of an epidemic is often characterized by an exponential increase in the number of infected individuals. In this paper, we predict the exponential spreading rate of an epidemic on a complex network. We first find an…