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The success of a vaccination program is crucially dependent on its adoption by a critical fraction of the population, as the resulting herd immunity prevents future outbreaks of an epidemic. However, the effectiveness of a campaign can…
Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…
We investigate the effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on the timescale and final size of infectious disease epidemics. The abundance of transitive relationships (the number of 3 cliques) in a network and the variance of…
Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like…
The epidemiology has recently witnessed great advances based on computational models. Its scope and impact are getting wider thanks to the new data sources feeding analytical frameworks and models. Besides traditional variables considered…
Recommendations around epidemics tend to focus on individual behaviors, with much less efforts attempting to guide event cancellations and other collective behaviors since most models lack the higher-order structure necessary to describe…
We introduce a simple multiplicative model to describe the temporal behavior and the ultimate outcome of an epidemic. Our model accounts, in a minimalist way, for the competing influences of imposing public-health restrictions when the…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
Especially in lattice structured populations, homogeneous mixing represents an inadequate assumption. Various improvements upon the ordinary pair approximation based on a number of assumptions concerning the higher-order correlations have…
Recent studies in network science and control have shown a meaningful relationship between the epidemic processes (e.g., COVID-19 spread) and some network properties. This paper studies how such network properties, namely clustering…
Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…
The propagation of model epidemics on a small-world network under the action of immunization is studied. Although the connectivity in this kind of networks is rather uniform, a vaccination strategy focused on the best connected individuals…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configuration model, in which stubs (half-edges) are paired to form…
We consider the problem of controlling the propagation of an epidemic outbreak in an arbitrary contact network by distributing vaccination resources throughout the network. We analyze a networked version of the…
Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
Complex networks describe a wide range of systems in nature and society. Frequently cited examples include Internet, WWW, a network of chemicals linked by chemical reactions, social relationship networks, citation networks, etc. The…
Pandemics, in addition to affecting the health of populations, can have huge impacts on their social and economic behavior. These factors, on the other hand, have the potential to feed back to and influence the disease spreading. It is…