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Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-11 Davide Lauria , Svetlozar T. Rachev , A. Alexandre Trindade

In this paper, we study dependence uncertainty and the resulting effects on tail risk measures, which play a fundamental role in modern risk management. We introduce the notion of a regular dependence measure, defined on multi-marginal…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-28 Corrado De Vecchi , Max Nendel , Jan Streicher

Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-06 Benjamin Köhler , Anton J. Heckens , Thomas Guhr

In this paper, according to a certain criterion, we divide the exponential distribution class into three subclasses. One of them is closely related to the regular-variation-tailed distribution class, so it is called the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-30 Zhaolei Cui , Edward Omey , Wenyuan Wang , Yuebao Wang

This book chapter illustrates how to apply extreme value statistics to financial time series data. Such data often exhibits strong serial dependence, which complicates assessment of tail risks. We discuss the two main approches to tail risk…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-30 Anna Kiriliouk , Chen Zhou

For a fixed positive integer $\;k,\;$ limit laws of linearly normalized $\;k$-th upper order statistics are well known. In this article, a comprehensive study of tail behaviours of limit laws of normalized $k$-th upper order statistics…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-11 Sreenivasan Ravi , Mandagere Chandrashekhar Manohar

It is known that large deviations of sums of subexponential random variables are most likely realised by deviations of a single random variable. In this article we give a detailed picture of how subexponential random variables are…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-25 Inés Armendáriz , Michail Loulakis

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jean-Francois Muzy , Emmanuel Bacry , Alexey Kozhemyak

Let $(\xi_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a sequence of independent and symmetric random variables. We consider the upper bounds on tail probabilities of self-normalized deviations $$ \mathbf{P} \Big( \max_{1\leq k \leq n} \sum_{i=1}^{k} |\xi_i|\big/…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-05 Xiequan Fan

We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-05 Julien Hambuckers , Li Sun , Luca Trapin

The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-14 Debanjana Datta , Diganta Mukherjee

We study the joint limit distribution of the $k$ largest eigenvalues of a $p\times p$ sample covariance matrix $XX^\T$ based on a large $p\times n$ matrix $X$. The rows of $X$ are given by independent copies of a linear process,…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-31 Richard A. Davis , Oliver Pfaffel , Robert Stelzer

We say that a random variable is $light$-$tailed$ if moments of order $2+\epsilon$ are finite for some $\epsilon>0$; otherwise, we say that it is $heavy$-$tailed$. We study queueing networks that operate under the Max-Weight scheduling…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-28 Arsalan Sharifnassab , John N. Tsitsiklis

We study the empirical version of halfspace depths with the objective of establishing a connection between the rates of convergence and the tail behaviour of the corresponding underlying distributions. The intricate interplay between the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-03 Sibsankar Singha , Marie Kratz , Sreekar Vadlamani

We investigate asymptotics of the tail distribution of sojourn time $$ \int_0^T \mathbb{I}(X(t)> u)dt, $$ as $u\to\infty$, where $X$ is a centered stationary Gaussian process and $T$ is an independent of $X$ nonnegative random variable. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-28 Krzysztof Dȩbicki , Xiaofan Peng

Let $X_{1},..,X_{n}$ denote an i.i.d. sample with light tail distribution and $S_{1}^{n}$ denote the sum of its terms; let $a_{n}$ be a real sequence\ going to infinity with $n.$\ In a previous paper (\cite{BoniaCao}) it is proved that as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-16 Michel Broniatowski , Zhansheng Cao

We provide exact asymptotics for the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P} \{S_{n,r} > x\}$ as $x \to \infty$, for fix $n$, where $S_{n,r}$ is the $r$-trimmed partial sum of i.i.d. St. Petersburg random variables. In particular, we prove that…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-13 István Berkes , László Györfi , Péter Kevei

Causal questions are omnipresent in many scientific problems. While much progress has been made in the analysis of causal relationships between random variables, these methods are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-23 Nicola Gnecco , Nicolai Meinshausen , Jonas Peters , Sebastian Engelke

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-30 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Weibull tail-coefficient (WTC) plays a crucial role in extreme value statistics when dealing with Weibull-type tails. Several distributions, such as normal, Gamma, Weibull, and Logistic distributions, exhibit this type of tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-08 Lígia Henriques-Rodrigues , Frederico Caeiro , M. Ivette Gomes
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