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Large-scale empirical data, the sample size and the dimension are high, often exhibit various characteristics. For example, the noise term follows unknown distributions or the model is very sparse that the number of critical variables is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-18 Yuehan Yang , Hu Yang

We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-21 Sam Justice , N. D. Shyamalkumar

We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Bikramjit Das

We study the problem of constructing honest and adaptive confidence intervals for the tail coefficient in the second order Pareto model, when the second order coefficient is unknown. This problem is translated into a testing problem on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-18 Alexandra Carpentier , Arlene K. H. Kim

In this paper, we study the problem of signal estimation from noisy non-linear measurements when the unknown $n$-dimensional signal is in the range of an $L$-Lipschitz continuous generative model with bounded $k$-dimensional inputs. We make…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-09 Zhaoqiang Liu , Jonathan Scarlett

We consider solutions to so-called stochastic fixed point equation $R \stackrel{d}{=} \Psi(R)$, where $\Psi $ is a random Lipschitz function and $R$ is a random variable independent of $\Psi$. Under the assumption that $\Psi$ can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-14 Ewa Damek , Piotr Dyszewski

We derive expressions for the finite-sample distribution of the Lasso estimator in the context of a linear regression model in low as well as in high dimensions by exploiting the structure of the optimization problem defining the estimator.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-25 Karl Ewald , Ulrike Schneider

This paper introduces the partial Gini covariance, a novel dependence measure that addresses the challenges of high-dimensional inference with heavy-tailed errors, often encountered in fields like finance, insurance, climate, and biology.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-21 Yilin Zhang , Songshan Yang , Yunan Wu , Lan Wang

We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Gordon V. Chavez

We consider least squares estimation in a general nonparametric regression model. The rate of convergence of the least squares estimator (LSE) for the unknown regression function is well studied when the errors are sub-Gaussian. We find…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-12 Arun K. Kuchibhotla , Rohit K. Patra

This work studies the tail exponents for the height function of the stationary stochastic six vertex model in the moderate deviations regime. For the upper tail of the height function we find upper and lower bounds of matching order, with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Benjamin Landon , Philippe Sosoe

The local Rademacher complexity framework is one of the most successful general-purpose toolboxes for establishing sharp excess risk bounds for statistical estimators based on the framework of empirical risk minimization. Applying this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-24 Varun Kanade , Patrick Rebeschini , Tomas Vaskevicius

In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-17 Jordan Richards , Jonathan A. Tawn

We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Archil Gulisashvili , Peter Tankov

Although stochastic optimization is central to modern machine learning, the precise mechanisms underlying its success, and in particular, the precise role of the stochasticity, still remain unclear. Modelling stochastic optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-12 Liam Hodgkinson , Michael W. Mahoney

Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-09 E. Hashorva

Recent studies have shown that heavy tails can emerge in stochastic optimization and that the heaviness of the tails have links to the generalization error. While these studies have shed light on interesting aspects of the generalization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-14 Anant Raj , Melih Barsbey , Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Lingjiong Zhu , Umut Şimşekli

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Tomoya Wakayama

Many real-world prediction tasks have outcome variables that have characteristic heavy-tail distributions. Examples include copies of books sold, auction prices of art pieces, demand for commodities in warehouses, etc. By learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Xindi Wang , Onur Varol , Tina Eliassi-Rad