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The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-19 Mathias Raschke

Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-11 Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Etrit Haxholli , Marco Lorenzi

We study the high-dimensional linear model with noise distribution known up to a scale parameter. With an $\ell_1$-penalty on the regression coefficients, we show that a transformation of the log-likelihood allows for a choice of the tuning…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Sara van de Geer , Sylvain Sardy , Maximę van Cutsem

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

Although there is an extensive literature on the maxima of Gaussian processes, there are relatively few non-asymptotic bounds on their lower-tail probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop such a bound, while also allowing for many…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Miles E. Lopes , Junwen Yao

The well-known "Janson's inequality" gives Poisson-like upper bounds for the lower tail probability \Pr(X \le (1-\eps)\E X) when X is the sum of dependent indicator random variables of a special form. We show that, for large deviations,…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Svante Janson , Lutz Warnke

We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-06 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Lasso is a method for high-dimensional regression, which is now commonly used when the number of covariates $p$ is of the same order or larger than the number of observations $n$. Classical asymptotic normality theory does not apply to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-20 Michael Celentano , Andrea Montanari , Yuting Wei

Despite the ubiquitous use of stochastic optimization algorithms in machine learning, the precise impact of these algorithms and their dynamics on generalization performance in realistic non-convex settings is still poorly understood. While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-12 Liam Hodgkinson , Umut Şimşekli , Rajiv Khanna , Michael W. Mahoney

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The assessment of risks should be carried out in accordance with the regulatory authority's requirement at high quantiles. In general, the underlying distribution function is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-15 Ingo Hoffmann , Christoph J. Börner

Penalized regression methods, most notably the lasso, are a popular approach to analyzing high-dimensional data. An attractive property of the lasso is that it naturally performs variable selection. An important area of concern, however, is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Ryan Miller , Patrick Breheny

We find the exact values for constants in bilateral Calderon-Stein-Weiss inequalities between tail (Marcinkiewicz) norm and weak Lebesgue (Lorentz) norm. Possible applications: Functional Analysis (for instance, interpolation of operators),…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2012-10-18 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

Expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail below (or above) a certain quantile of a probability distribution. Expected shortfall regression provides powerful tools for learning the relationship between a response variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Shushu Zhang , Xuming He , Kean Ming Tan , Wen-Xin Zhou

We consider a high-dimensional regression model with a possible change-point due to a covariate threshold and develop the Lasso estimator of regression coefficients as well as the threshold parameter. Our Lasso estimator not only selects…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-23 Sokbae Lee , Myung Hwan Seo , Youngki Shin

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-31 Anant Raj , Lingjiong Zhu , Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Umut Şimşekli

This paper examines LASSO, a widely-used $L_{1}$-penalized regression method, in high dimensional linear predictive regressions, particularly when the number of potential predictors exceeds the sample size and numerous unit root regressors…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-17 Ziwei Mei , Zhentao Shi

Recently emerging large-scale biomedical data pose exciting opportunities for scientific discoveries. However, the ultrahigh dimensionality and non-negligible measurement errors in the data may create difficulties in estimation. There are…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Xin Ma , Suprateek Kundu

The possibilities of the use of the coefficient of variation over a high threshold in tail modelling are discussed. The paper also considers multiple threshold tests for a generalized Pareto distribution, together with a threshold selection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-02 J. Castillo , M. Padilla