Related papers: Simulating the Spread of Pandemics with Different …
The SEIRS model, an extension of the SEIR model for analyzing and predicting the spread of virus infection, was further extended to consider the movement of people across regions. In contrast to previous models that con-sider the risk of…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
We propose a risk measure and construct an infectious diseases hazard map for India. Given an outbreak location, a hazard index is assigned to each city using an effective distance that depends on inter-city mobilities instead of…
The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is…
In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…
In this paper, we use a series of small world networks to simulate the epidemic spreading in the real world. To make our model more similar to the real world, we employ a parameter $p_{move}$ to denote its moving probability, which…
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 spreading, the number of studies on the epidemic models increased dramatically. It is important for policymakers to know how the disease will spread and what are the effects of the policies and…
Different countries -- and sometimes different regions within the same countries -- have adopted different strategies in trying to contain the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic; these mix in variable parts social confinement, early detection and…
We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global…
Infectious diseases cause more than 13 million deaths a year, worldwide. Globalization, urbanization, climate change, and ecological pressures have significantly increased the risk of a global pandemic. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic-the…
The global spread of pandemics is facilitated by the mobility of populations, transforming localized infections into widespread phenomena. To contain it, timely identification of influential regions that accelerate this process is…
COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an…
Disease propagation between countries strongly depends on their effective distance, a measure derived from the world air transportation network (WAN). It reduces the complex spreading patterns of a pandemic to a wave-like propagation from…
A pandemic is the spread of a disease across large regions, and can have devastating costs to the society in terms of health, economic and social. As such, the study of effective pandemic mitigation strategies can yield significant positive…
The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between…
Epidemics like Covid-19 and Ebola have impacted people's lives significantly. The impact of mobility of people across the countries or states in the spread of epidemics has been significant. The spread of disease due to factors local to the…
Transportation networks play a critical part in the spread of infectious diseases between populations. In this work, we define a networked susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic process with loss of immunity over time (SEIRS) that…
The last three years have been an extraordinary time with the Covid-19 pandemic killing millions, affecting and distressing billions of people worldwide. Authorities took various measures such as turning school and work to remote and…