We propose a risk measure and construct an infectious diseases hazard map for India. Given an outbreak location, a hazard index is assigned to each city using an effective distance that depends on inter-city mobilities instead of geographical distance. We demonstrate its utility using an SIR model augmented with air, rail, and road data between top 446 cities. Simulations show that the effective distance from outbreak location reliably predicts the time of arrival of infection in other cities. The hazard index predictions compare well with the observed spread of SARS-CoV-2. The hazard map can be useful in other outbreaks also.
@article{arxiv.2105.15123,
title = {An infectious diseases hazard map for India based on mobility and transportation networks},
author = {Onkar Sadekar and Mansi Budamagunta and G. J. Sreejith and Sachin Jain and M. S. Santhanam},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2105.15123},
year = {2021}
}
Comments
25 pages, 8 figures, including supplementary material