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Suppose an urn contains initially any number of balls of two colours. One ball is drawn randomly and then put back with $\alpha$ balls of the same colour and $\beta$ balls of the opposite colour. Both cases, $\beta=0$ and $\beta>0$ are well…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Raphael Alves , Rafael A. Rosales

We study an urn process containing red and blue balls and two different strategies to reinforce the urn. Namely, a generalized P\'olya-type strategy versus an i.i.d. one. At each step, one of the two reinforcement strategies is chosen by…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-14 Manuel González-Navarrete , Rodrigo Lambert

Consider a P\'olya urn with balls of several colours, where balls are drawn sequentially and each drawn ball immediately is replaced together with a fixed number of balls of the same colour. It is well-known that the proportions of balls of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-25 Svante Janson

Consider an urn initially containing $b$ black and $w$ white balls. Select a ball at random and observe its color. If it is black, stop. Otherwise, return the white ball together with another white ball to the urn. Continue selecting at…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-05 Norbert Henze , Mark P. Holmes

We propose a method of detecting a phase transition in a generalized P\'olya urn in an information cascade experiment. The method is based on the asymptotic behavior of the correlation $C(t)$ between the first subject's choice and the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-02-15 Masafumi Hino , Yosuke Irie , Masato Hisakado , Taiki Takahashi , Shintaro Mori

We consider a time-dependent version of a P\'olya urn containing black and white balls. At each time $n$ a ball is drawn from the urn at random and replaced in the urn along with $\sigma_n$ additional balls of the same colour. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-16 Nadia Sidorova

This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the P\'olya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-12-19 Ken Yamamoto

We study the number of white balls in a classical P\'olya urn model with the additional feature that, at random times, a black ball is added to the urn. The number of draws between these random times are i.i.d. and, under certain moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-05 Erol Peköz , Adrian Röllin , Nathan Ross

The P\'olya urn scheme is a discrete-time process concerning the addition and removal of colored balls. There is a known embedding of it in continuous-time, called the P\'olya process. We deal with a generalization of this stochastic model,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-29 Daniel Krenn , Hosam Mahmoud , Mark Daniel Ward

We consider a system of urns of Polya-type, with balls of two colors; the reinforcement of each urn depends both on the content of the same urn and on the average content of all urns. We show that the urns synchronize almost surely, in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-08 Paolo Dai Pra , Pierre-Yves Louis , Ida G. Minelli

For the plain Polya urn with two colors, black and white, we prove a functional central limit theorem for the number of white balls assuming that the initial number of black balls is large. Depending on the initial number of white balls,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-03 Dimitris Cheliotis , Dimitra Kouloumpou

We introduce a modification of the generalized P\'olya urn model containing two urns and we study the number of balls $B_j(n)$ of a given color $j\in\{1,\ldots,J\}$, $J\in\mathbb{N}$ added to the urns after $n$ draws. We provide sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-13 Konrad Kolesko , Ecaterina Sava-Huss

In classical urn models, one usually draws one ball with replacement at each time unit and then adds one ball of the same colour. Given a weight sequence $(w_k)_{k\in\N}$, the probability of drawing a ball of a certain colour is…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-18 Mickaël Launay

Sufficient conditions are developed for a class of generalized Polya urn schemes ensuring exchangeability. The extended class includes the Blackwell-MacQueen Polya urn and the urn schemes for the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hemant Ishwaran , Mahmoud Zarepour

Though widely used in applications, reinforced random walk on graphs have never been the subject of a valid statistical inference. We develop in this paper a statistical framework for a general two-colored urn model. The probability to draw…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-05 Line Chloé Le Goff , Philippe Soulier

We study an urn model introduced in the paper of Chen and Wei, where at each discrete time step $m$ balls are drawn at random from the urn containing colors white and black. Balls are added to the urn according to the inspected colors,…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-06-23 May-Ru Chen , Markus Kuba

A well known connection between first-passage probability of random walk and distribution of electrical potential described by Laplace equation is studied. We simulate random walk in the plane numerically as a discrete time process with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-03-21 Olga Klimenkova , Anton Menshutin , Lev N. Shchur

A P\'olya urn process is a Markov chain that models the evolution of an urn containing some coloured balls, the set of possible colours being $\{1,\ldots,d\}$ for $d\in \mathbb{N}$. At each time step, a random ball is chosen uniformly in…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-13 Cécile Mailler , Jean-François Marckert

The recurrence properties of random walks can be characterized by P\'{o}lya number, i.e., the probability that the walker has returned to the origin at least once. In this paper, we consider recurrence properties for a general 1D random…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-05-20 Xiao-Kun Zhang , Jing Wan , Jing-Ju Lu , Xin-Ping Xu

We propose a way of finding a Stein type characterization of a given absolutely continuous distribution $\mu$ on $\R$ which is motivated by a regression property satisfied by an exchangeable pair $(W,W')$ where $\calL(W)$ is supposed or…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Christian Döbler