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The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-25 Robert R. Wilkinson , Kieran J. Sharkey

Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-06-28 O. Mosbah , N. Zekri , M. Mokhtari , S. Sahraoui

We study the absorbing phase transition for the model of epidemic spreading, Susceptible- Infected- Refractory (SIR), on one dimensional small world networks. This model has been found to be in the universality class of the dynamical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-01-05 M. Ali Saif , M. A. Shukri , F. H. Al-makhedhi

A class of multiple-timescale asymptotic solutions to the equations of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is presented for the case of high basic reproduction number, with the inverse of the latter employed as the expansion…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-25 Oleg B. Shiryaev

We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-30 H. Thomas Williams , Irina Mazilu , Dan Mazilu

When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-04-21 Jõao Gabriel Simões Delboni , Gabriel Fabricius

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Steven P. Lalley

Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-27 Son Luu , Edward Susko , Lam Si Tung Ho

Much effort has been directed towards using mathematical models to understand and predict contagious disease, in particular Ebola outbreaks. Classical SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) compartmental models capture well the dynamics of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-12-22 Anca Radulescu , Joanna Herron

Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-03-18 Guillermo Abramson , Sebastian Gonçalves , Marcelo F. C. Gomes

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-17 Christian Gourieroux , Yang Lu

Infections diseases are marked by recovering time distributions which can be far from the exponential one associated with Markovian/Poisson processes, broadly applied in epidemic compartmental models. In the present work, we tackled this…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-10-03 José Carlos M. Silva , Diogo H. Silva , Francisco A. Rodrigues , Silvio C. Ferreira

We consider the spread of a supercritical stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemic on a configuration model random graph. We mainly focus on the final stages of a large outbreak and provide limit results for the duration…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-26 Abid Ali Lashari , Ana Serafimović , Pieter Trapman

A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-03-28 Stéphan Clémençon , Viet Chi Tran , Hector De Arazoza

We investigate the time evolution of disease spread on a network by using the concept of generations. We derive a set of equations, which can be used to determine the average epidemic size. We find a very good agreement between the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-05-24 B. Davoudi , F. Brauer , B. Pourbohloul

Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-04 Tibor Antal , P. L. Krapivsky

The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold depends on the natural history…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-01-20 Eugenio Valdano , Chiara Poletto , Vittoria Colizza

This work is concerned with epidemiological models defined on networks, which highlight the prominent role of the social contact network of a given population in the spread of infectious diseases. In particular, we address the modelling and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Giovanni Naldi , Giuseppe Patane'

In this paper, we study the $SIS$ (susceptible-infected-susceptible) and $SIR$ (susceptible-infected-removed) epidemic models on undirected, weighted networks by deriving pairwise-type approximate models coupled with individual-based…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-02-22 Prapanporn Rattana , Konstantin B. Blyuss , Ken T. D. Eames , Istvan Z. Kiss

We analyze a Markovian SIR epidemic model where individuals either recover naturally or are diagnosed, leading to isolation and potential contact tracing. Our focus is on digital contact tracing via a tracing app, considering both its…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Tom Britton , Dongni Zhang