Related papers: Prediction in the Hypothesis-Rich Regime
Many macroscopic physical processes are known to occur in a time-directed way despite the apparent time-symmetry of the known fundamental laws. A popular explanation is to postulate an unimaginably atypical state for the early universe -- a…
An implicit ambiguity in the field of prediction-based decision-making regards the relation between the concepts of prediction and decision. Much of the literature in the field tends to blur the boundaries between the two concepts and often…
Reaction systems are discrete dynamical systems inspired by bio-chemical processes, whose dynamical behaviour is expressed by set-theoretic operations on finite sets. Reaction systems thus provide a description of bio-chemical phenomena…
How can quantum mechanics be (i) the fundamental theoretical framework of contemporary physics and (ii) a probability calculus that presupposes the events to which, and on the basis of which, it assigns probabilities? The question is…
A different general philosophy, to be called Full Randomness (FR), for the analysis of random effects models is presented, involving a notion of reducing or preferably eliminating fixed effects, at least formally. For example, under FR…
There are two main opposing schools of statistical reasoning, Frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Until recent days, the frequentist or classical approach has dominated the scientific research, but Bayesianism has reappeared with a strong…
After experimenting with a number of non-probabilistic methods for dealing with uncertainty many researchers reaffirm a preference for probability methods [1] [2], although this remains controversial. The importance of being able to form…
Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view.…
This paper presents an approach for developing the explanation capabilities of rule-based expert systems managing imprecise and uncertain knowledge. The treatment of uncertainty takes place in the framework of possibility theory where the…
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…
From classical mechanics to quantum field theory, the physical facts at one point in space are held to be independent of those at other points in space. I propose that we can usefully challenge this orthodoxy in order to explain otherwise…
The problem of comparing concepts of dependence in general rough sets with those in probability theory had been initiated by the present author in some of her recent papers. This problem relates to the identification of the limitations of…
Complex systems theory pays much attention to simple mechanisms producing nontrivial patterns, especially power laws. However, power laws with exponent close to one also result from complex mixtures of mechanisms that, in isolation, would…
We discuss the possibility that the complexity of biological systems may lie beyond the predictive capabilities of theoretical physics: in Stuart Kauffman's words, there is a World Beyond Physics (WBP). It is argued that, in view of modern…
This paper is a preliminary work to address the problem of dynamical systems with parameters varying in time. An idea to predict their behaviour is proposed. These systems are called \emph{transient systems}, and are distinguished from…
The dynamics of physical theories is usually described by differential equations. Difference equations then appear mainly as an approximation which can be used for a numerical analysis. As such, they have to fulfill certain conditions to…
The mathematical representation of the physical objects determines which mathematical branch will be applied during the physical analysis in the systems studied. The difference among non-quantum physics, like classic or relativistic…
Philosophers now seem to agree that frequentism is an untenable strategy to explain the meaning of probabilities. Nevertheless, I want to revive frequentism, and I will do so by grounding probabilities on typicality in the same way as the…
Possibility theory offers a framework where both Lehmann's "preferential inference" and the more productive (but less cautious) "rational closure inference" can be represented. However, there are situations where the second inference does…
Learning physics is a context dependent process. I consider a broader interdisciplinary problem of where differences in understanding and reasoning arise. I suggest the long run effects a multiple choice based learning system as well as…